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000
FXUS64 KBRO 231129 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mid-level ridging over Mexico will build into Deep South Texas
providing subsidence through the period. At the surface, high
pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to slide
eastward through Wednesday. Easterly winds early this morning will
become southeasterly later this morning into the afternoon. The warm
southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid
80s across much of the area today under mostly cloudy skies. Mostly
cloudy skies will continue tonight with lows falling into the upper
60s to low 70s. Wednesday will be warmer with near normal
temperatures, highs ranging from the 70s at the beaches to the
upper 80s to the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected to persist through
the long-term forecast period with continued influences of a surface
high pressure system overhead. With low pressure systems over the
mountains of north-central Mexico and a surface high just to our
east, a surface pressure gradient is expected to strengthen over the
region Thursday into the weekend. With low level jet (LLJ) winds at
times increasing between 40-45 kts, there is the potential for wind
gusts at times meeting Wind Advisory criteria during this time
period. On the western flank of a surface high pressure system and
500 mb ridge axis, a return flow out of the south-southeast keep a
moist and warm air advection (WAA) regime in place. Temperatures
overall will be near normal to slightly warmer than normal with
daytime highs ranging between the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations continue to indicate
ceilings above 3500 ft across much of the region with VFR
ceilings, except for MVFR ceilings at MFE. Model guidance
continues to suggest periods of MVFR ceilings will return between
around 14-16Z as low cloud decks lower. MVFR ceilings should
prevail through much of the period at all aerodromes. Otherwise,
east winds early this morning will shift to the southeast later
this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Now through Wednesday...High pressure across the northern Gulf will
slide eastward through midweek. This will maintain light to moderate
southeast winds and low to moderate seas through the period.

Wednesday night through Monday....Adverse marine conditions are
expected to develop Thursday through the weekend amid a
strengthening surface pressure gradient. Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions are expected to develop on Thursday with Small
Craft Advisory conditions being possible as early as Thursday night.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist through the
weekend with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions developing
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  72  84  74 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               82  70  86  71 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 83  72  88  73 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         84  71  89  72 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  73  78  74 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  71  83  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...63-KC