629
FXUS61 KBTV 092328
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue through much of the next
week with chances for showers nearly every day. It`ll be handy to
have an umbrella or rain jacket nearby but outdoor plans shouldn`t
be impacted as no heavy rainfall is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 728 PM EDT Thursday...No changes needed to the forecast
at this time. Isolated showers from earlier this afternoon
continue to wane, while mid/high clouds are increasing across
the region this evening. These clouds should be thick enough to
inhibit any radiational cooling tonight, and may lead to higher
min temps than currently forecast, but no changes made at this
time and we`ll monitor trends through the remainder of the
evening.

Previous DiscussionIt`s been a beautiful sunny day if you
reside in the Champlain Valley otherwise it`s a been a mix of
cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. Northerly winds have been blowing
stable Lake Champlain air downwind which has limited cloud cover in
the vicinity of Lake Champlain. This should gradually erode late
this afternoon with clouds cover becoming more widespread across the
region come sunset. In the meantime, several light showers have
developed in response to weak lift aloft and diurnal heating. These
showers will continue to move from north to south but chances for
thunder today are basically NIL given weak thermodynamic profiles.
Any showers seen this afternoon and evening will dissipate this
evening with the loss of heating with quiet weather on tap for
tonight with seasonal temperatures. Another round of showers is on
tap for Friday although coverage remains uncertain at this time. The
upper level flow is expected to split with weak high pressure over
much of the North Country which should shunt the bulk of shower
activity south of the region. The latest high-res guidance is
showing most shower activity will be focused across the southern
Greens and Adirondack Mountains with less coverage elsewhere.
Nevertheless, we don`t expect a washout by any means on Friday but
it might be handy to have an umbrella or rain jacket.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Scattered showers can be expected this
weekend as an upper level trough swings across the region. While
neither day this weekend looks to be a complete wash-out, the
weather will remain fairly unsettled. The best chances for
measurable precipitation will be across northern New York Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures this weekend be on the cool
side, with high temperatures several degrees below normal with 925mb
temperatures ranging from 2C to 5C. Daytime highs this weekend will
top out in the 50s to low 60s, although if the sun is able to break
through clouds temperatures could warm even more under the May sun
angle. Overnight lows will be more seasonable given cloud cover,
with temperatures generally in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather continues as we head
into next week, with continued chances for showers as several
shortwaves pass through the region. There continues to be some
uncertainty regarding the timing and location of precipitation given
the upper level pattern, with the forecast relying on blended
guidance, but continued chances of scattered to numerous rain
showers are expected for most of next week. The showers look to be
more nuisance-type showers rather than impactful rain or
thunderstorms. Temperatures next week look to be seasonable, with
daytime highs in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period under BKN-OVC mid clouds. Some isolated showers will be
possible Friday afternoon, but shouldn`t reduce flight
categories. Otherwise, variable winds less than 6kts tonight
will continue Friday increasing to 5-10kts.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Lahiff