061
FXUS62 KCAE 090250
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1050 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday through
Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier
conditions return for the weekend. Expect generally above
average temperatures through the latter half of the week before
transitioning to near or slightly below average during the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms have come to an end across the forecast area with
some debris cloudiness across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee.
Upstream across eastern TN and NW GA there is another line of
thunderstorms which will move into the area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Concerns overnight are that plenty of mixed
layer CAPE remains although surface based CAPE is near zero due
to an inversion and mid level lapse rates from 850-500 mb are
just 6 C/Km. As such expect the next convection to begin during
the early morning hours as the short wave trough and line of
convection from TN moves into the area. Concern with
thunderstorms will again be around strong and gusty winds as
DCAPE values remain around 1000 J/Kg. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very complex forecast expected to unfold in this time period,
with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms (some severe)
possible. Much of what actually occurs tomorrow is actually
dependent on how much convection gets going tonight and
subsequently pushes into and through the FA. HREF members are
quite confident in convection initiating upstream in the TN
Valley and pushing the doorstep of the FA between midnight and
8a Thursday...which is a large time period. Confidence has
increased in this scenario but the primary question is where the
convection tracks and how widespread it will be. Some guidance
shows an initial wave developing and pushing into the northern
FA overnight with a secondary line of storms developing over
northern AL/MS by early Thursday morning and progressing into
the western and southern FA by late morning or early afternoon.
To be honest, this is one of the tougher forecast periods I can
remember simply due to the amount of model spread that remains.
Looking at current radar, HRRR/ARW/NSSL CAMs are doing well and
will be leaned upon with early Thursday morning`s forecast...and
each of these have different solutions. Bottom line is that the
thermodynamic and shear environments present across the area
and to our southwest will be favorable for severe convection,
even early in the morning hours Thursday. I think the most
likely outcome is that a line of storms pushes along a weak
boundary that is laid up across the northern FA right now (the
focus for potentially severe convection this afternoon), with
another line of storms across the southern TN valley pushing
southeastward into the CSRA. Primary threat is for wind with all
of this activity, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
SPC has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk with an Enhanced
Risk across the southern FA. It is important not to get hung up
on exactly where the risk lines run as the majority of the area
is under the threat of severe weather at some point over the
next 24 hours.

Confidence is fairly high that we will see a break in convection
tomorrow afternoon as the complex of thunderstorms moves
southeastward and leaves the atmosphere worked over by the
afternoon hours. Highs should be somewhere in the 80s across the
FA, with confidence low and dependent on morning convective
evolution. A stronger and more substantial shortwave trough is
expected to rotate around the large scale trough and approach
the FA from the west by Thursday night, with another complex of
thunderstorms likely pushing through by Friday morning. Not
quite as confident that this will produce severe weather as
there will be little time for the atmosphere to recover. So (for
now) just expecting rain and thunderstorms to arrive across the
FA from west to east after midnight Friday, progressing through
the area by early Friday afternoon. The front should finally
push through thereafter and decrease our threat for severe
weather altogether.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Operational and ensemble guidance is in good agreement with
respect  to the overall synoptic evolution in this period. 500
hPa troughing is expected to finally swing eastward by Saturday,
setting the area up within convergence aloft as a 250 hPa jet
streak pushes eastward and across the area. High pressure is
forecast to begin settling into the southern plains, and will
likely push eastward as upper level convergence shifts eastward.
A 500 hPa vort max is likely to shift into the Mid-Atlantic,
shifting another reinforcing cold front through during the
afternoon hours. Probabilities are low, but wouldn`t be
surprised to see a stray shower along and ahead of that feature
Saturday afternoon. Aside from that, things looks quite nice
Sat/Sun/Mon as the progressive pattern keeps high pressure
translating towards and through the FA. Temps look much more
seasonal - in the upper 70s and lower 80s. As we get into early
next week, shortwave ridging shifts over the region by Monday
night. This will be ahead of a slow moving, closed mid/upper
level low progged to push into the eastern CONUS by the middle
of next week. Confidence is low on the details of this as
operational models and LREF members diverge on speed and
amplitude of this feature. But moisture return ahead of it and
southwesterly flow aloft favor the potential for showers and
thunderstorms Mon Night through Wednesday, and that will be
reflected in the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the early morning hours with
restrictions for the morning and early afternoon.

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies across the area will give
way to an upper level disturbance along with thunderstorms
beginning in the early morning and sunrise hours and continuing
through early afternoon. The potential for strong thunderstorms
will continue with the main threat being strong gusty and
erratic winds. Timing and coverage continue to have some
uncertainty however have included VCSH at all terminals
beginning 10-11z with TS around 12-14z. Expect convection to
diminish in the early afternoon with the remainder of the
period VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Then expect another day of convection
and associated restrictions on Friday. Drier weather with no
restrictions likely for this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$