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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181056
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
656 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today followed by a cold front late tonight into
early Friday. High pressure returns with much cooler conditions
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:55 AM Update...
Some mid level cloud cover continues across Northern Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania early this morning. Expect for this cloud
cover to dissipate from west to east as the mid level ridging
builds overhead.

Original discussion...
Brief mid level ridging builds over the region and lead to a
period of quiet and dry weather through tonight. A cold front
enters the region from the west late tonight and will introduce
shower chances from west to east late tonight through late
Friday morning. Dew points in the low 50`s and a few hundred
Joules of MUCAPE should be enough for a few embedded
thunderstorms accompanying rain showers. Showers and storms will
exit fairly quickly Friday morning and leave much of the area
dry by Friday afternoon.

One final day of near to above normal temperatures today before we
undergo a pattern shift behind the cold front tonight. Highs in the
mid 60s to 70 degrees this afternoon will be accompanied b overnight
lows in the 50s. Slightly below normal on Friday with highs in the
upper 50s the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure accompanied by a generally dry airmass
quickly builds in behind the front on Friday night. The upper level
trough axis will slide east across the area on Saturday, pushing a
stronger cold front across the area with a general broad cyclonic
flow across the region. A partly to mostly cloudy cu deck will fill
in with daytime heating on Saturday but most areas will be dry with
only a shallow moist layer and dry air in the mid-levels aloft.
There is sufficient lift focused into Pennsylvania to carry a 20
percent chance of showers but coverage of any rain showers will be
limited. High temperatures on Saturday will likely occur by midday
then fall through the afternoon as cold air advection strengthens.
Westerly winds will be brisk in the 15-25 mph range with gusts as
high as 30 mph making conditions feel somewhat brisk.

Ridging at the surface builds in from the west on Saturday night
with winds becoming light enough for areas of frost to develop.
These will be inland from Lake Erie where low temperatures are
forecast to drop into the lower 30s. Although it looks partly cloudy
at this time, if skies clear out we may need frost advisories for
favored areas. Sunday will be similar except with perhaps lighter
winds so people should stay tuned to forecast updates and plan to
shelter any tender vegetation if possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large area of surface high pressure will gradually build to the
southeast through Monday with temperatures returning to near normal
with lots of sun. Models indicate than an area of low pressure will
slide east across northern Ohio or Lake Erie on Tuesday ahead of a
piece of shortwave energy aloft. This will bring the next chance of
showers and possibly thunderstorms. This will be a quick moving
system with high pressure building south out of Canada behind it.
This should push temperatures back to slightly below normal to end
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Mix of MVFR/VFR across the region with MVFR cigs around 2.5kft
hanging around most terminals along and east of I-71 through
this morning. As a ridge of high pressure builds overhead,
anticipate for low/mid level clouds to clear out. High level
clouds begin to enter the region from the west ahead of a cold
front that will swing eastward late tonight through early Friday
morning. Have showers entering western terminals around 07-09Z
Friday morning and continuing to quickly progress eastward.
For now, have introduced prevailing -SHRA with MVFR cigs at
western and central terminals. It looks like we could tap into
enough instability to get some embedded thunder, especially for
western terminals, but not enough confidence to put thunder in
the TAF with this issuance.

Winds start the period westerly around 10 knots before turning
southeasterly ahead of the cold front late this evening. Winds
abruptly turn northwesterly behind the cold front early Friday
morning while increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25
knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Friday into Saturday in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will decrease through the day
with lake breezes on the west half of the lake possible this
afternoon as high pressure expands overhead. An area of low pressure
will track northeast across Lake Erie on Friday pulling a cold front
east across the lake behind it. Another trough will cross the Great
Lakes on Saturday pulling a stronger cold front across the region. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for areas east of Willowick with
waves of 3 to 5 feet. A large area of high pressure will build east
through the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday. Another cold front
will cross Lake Erie on Tuesday night with unsettled conditions
returning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...KEC