494
FXUS64 KCRP 300523
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to medium chance for showers and storms tomorrow

 Coastal flood and high risk of rip currents will continue tomorrow

A quiet radar continues this afternoon with all the convection today
remaining just northeast of South Texas. Low chances for
thunderstorms (less than 25%) will continue this afternoon and
evening, however, if something does develop it could become severe
with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Rain chances
will decrease tonight before increasing to a low to medium chance
tomorrow morning. While the upper-level forcing doesn`t look
impressive tomorrow, plenty of moisture (PWAT 1.5-1.8") and
vorticity in the 850 and 700 mb levels could promote showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, any showers or thunderstorms that
develop tomorrow are not expected to become severe.

While winds continue to decrease, swell heights and periods continue
to remain elevated, thus, continuing the threat of coastal flooding
and high risk of rip currents. With current swell heights from Buoy
42019 coming in at 6.5-7.5 ft with swell periods between 8-9
seconds, coastal flooding could remain a concern and did not feel
comfortable allowing it to expire this evening. These conditions
will also lead to a continued risk of high rip currents. This will
be especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the
intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find
their way back to the Gulf.

Warm temperatures are expected to continue tomorrow with highs in
the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values from the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as
temperatures will remain warm in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday

- Risk of coastal flooding to persist Wednesday and Thursday

Global/mesoscale deterministic NWP models predict upper forcing
(either shortwaves or subtropical jet streaks) to affect the CWA
Wednesday through Saturday. The GFS maintains above normal PWAT
values during the period. The combination of the foregoing will
maintain a slight chance/chance for convection Wednesday through
Saturday. In response to one of the upper disturbances predicted
to move across the central/northern Plains, a cold front is
expected to approach central/southern Texas and stall. Given the
addition of surface forcing, decided to increase POPs over the CWA
Friday beyond that of the NBM. Concur with SPC with regard to a
Marginal risk of severe convection Wednesday over much of CWA, as
the deterministic GFS predicts CAPE/DCAPE values comparable to
strong/severe and predicts BRN values consistent with
multicells/supercells. The deterministic models predict a flat
upper ridge to build over the region Sunday, and result in a
decreasing chance for precipitation. The P-ETSS maintains waters
levels, during the times of high tide, near the threshold for
coastal flooding at Aransas Pass Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this evening will become
predominantly MVFR as clouds continue to spread across S TX
overnight. Brief periods of IFR CIGs will be possible at times.
Light patchy fog will also lead to periods of MVFR VSBYs, mainly
after midnight. VFR conditions are expected to resume by mid
morning Tuesday. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to
begin along the coast Tuesday morning and shift inland along the
sea breeze through Tuesday afternoon. Most locations will remain
dry, but did include PROB30 for TSRA`s for CRP, ALI and VCT.
Gusty easterly winds along the coast this evening will continue to
decrease overnight and become more southeast through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through Tuesday
night with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening
and tonight and a medium chance tomorrow. Seas are expected to
continue to gradually subside this afternoon dropping below 7 feet
late this afternoon and allowing for the Small Craft Advisory to
expire. The combination of upper disturbances and moist conditions
will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  87  75  86 /  10  30   0  20
Victoria          70  87  72  84 /  10  30   0  30
Laredo            74  95  75  94 /  20  10   0  30
Alice             73  90  74  89 /  10  30   0  30
Rockport          74  85  75  84 /  20  30   0  20
Cotulla           73  96  75  93 /   0   0   0  30
Kingsville        74  88  75  87 /  10  40   0  30
Navy Corpus       75  85  75  84 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...TE/81