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000
FXUS61 KCTP 140255
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1055 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Fair with decreasing wind overnight.
-Isolated strong/severe t-storms possible late Sunday afternoon
 and evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Winds continue to diminish after a blustery day. Wind speeds
overnight will slacken to 5 to 15 mph in most areas in the pre
dawn hours. Mostly clear skies will give way to some increasing
clouds spilling ESE from a disturbance approaching from the
eastern GLAKS. Mins will range from the mid to upper 30s north
to the lower 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main focus on Sunday is on late day severe potential, with most
of the day remaining dry through early afternoon. POPs ramp up
from northwest to southeast mid to late afternoon ahead of a
cold front pushing southeast from the Great Lakes. SPC has
placed much of CPA in an ENHANCED, fully surrounded by a SLIGHT
risk (levels 2 and 3 out of 5) with isolated strong to severe
t-storms possible mainly in the late afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds the primary threat, though large hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this shear profile.
Biggest concern tonight is that shear may potentially overwhelm
marginal CAPES on Sunday afternoon.

Showers should accompany the front as it sinks southward across
the area later Sunday evening into Sunday night before pushing
south of the MD line by Monday morning. High pressure builds in
for the start of next week bringing fair weather and pleasant
temperatures.

On the plus side, we will enjoy a nice warm up to end the
weekend and begin next week with highs rebounding into the
60-75F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will return at the beginning of the long
term as upper-level ridging breaks down, allowing for a warm
front to lift over the area. Warm advection will allow for rain
before scattered showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday evening
with an associated cold frontal passage. Showers look likely to
continue into the end of the week although coverage will be
more scattered in nature with some spread in deterministic
guidance at this time. Have capped PoPs in the 30-50% range at
this time until more agreement. Friday, some chance of drying
out emerges across mainly E PA with upslope potential continuing
due to enhanced westerly flow into the Alleghenies during this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong and gusty westerly winds will continue to decrease overnight.
VFR conditions and clear skies are expected overnight across
airspace wide at least 12Z Sunday.

Low level wind shear seems probable across western airfields
tonight for several hours. Chances for LLWS decrease after
daybreak, with winds increasing into the late morning and
afternoon hours, although not as gusty as today (Saturday).
Sped up start of LLWS by several hours.

Towards the end of the TAF period (after ~16Z Sunday) low
ceilings will begin to fill in across central PA as SHRA moves
into the area with TSRA probable (> 60%). Stronger wind gusts
will be likely in strong-to-severe thunderstorms, with damaging
wind gusts possible. Given this is out of the TAF period and
confidence on impacts at specific airfields is low, have just
began to signal lowering cigs towards the end of the 18Z TAF
package.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR AM, Restrictions in PM SHRA/TSRA. Strong winds
possible in strongest thunderstorms.

Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/PM TSRA with brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl/RXR
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl/RXR
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/NPB
AVIATION...Gartner/NPB