487
FXUS63 KDLH 021751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of precipitation to affect the area today and
  tonight with total precipitation amounts of between 0.2" and
  0.5".

- Warmer Friday. Precip chances loiter along the International
  Border.

- Saturday to be cool and showery followed by warmer and drier
  conditions for Sunday.

- Active pattern returns to our region beginning early next week
  and continuing through much of the work week with multiple
  chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Our next wave of precipitation is approaching the Northland
this morning as a surface low over southeast Nebraska moves
across Iowa into southern Wisconsin by this evening, then
continuing to the northeast and weakening. There is a secondary
low that develops over North Dakota today, and as the first
feature weakens, strengthens and moves slowly northeast tonight
and Friday. There is also a strong upper level shortwave that
pushes out of Wyoming today and moves northeast across Minnesota
tonight. This will produce a healthy round of rainfall that
pushes across the forecast area today and tonight, with
lingering showers into Friday. The current radar imagery shows
the main band of rainfall associated with the southern surface
low now moving across southern Minnesota, with a second area
over North Dakota, with the developing low. These areas bot will
spread northeast across the forecast area today and tonight,
with a high probability (>90%) of bringing at least a tenth of
an inch to a large portion of the area. However, only parts of
northwest Wisconsin have a 50 percent chance of getting a half
inch of rainfall by Friday morning. These higher rainfall
probabilities are associated with some elevated instability that
may produce some rumbles of embedded thunder this evening
there. We are also in a general thunder category in the SPC day
1 outlook, and northwest Wisconsin is in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. It will be a chilly, blustery day with highs
down in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the coolest conditions
around Lake Superior. We will have wrap-around shower activity
along the US/Canada border on Friday, along with a weak mid
level baroclinic zone that slides through the area and may bring
another period of light rainfall into the area on Friday night
into Saturday. Rainfall amounts with this system will be
considerably lighter with much less potential for convective
elements that could increase rainfall amounts. Friday will be
warmer than today with southwest winds instead of the easterlies
we expect today, and high temperatures should get into the 60s
for a large portion of the area. Saturday to have slightly
cooler temperatures. Sunday to be warmer and drier with highs
rising into the 60s nearly everywhere, with west to southwest
winds.

Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent
spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for much
of the upcoming work week. The operational models are keeping
Monday daytime mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some
faster members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we
have some low confidence pops in for Monday. The large cut off
low associated with this system spins over the northern Plains
for the early part of the week, but the evolution after that is
rather unclear at this point, but we are carrying pops for much
of the Monday through Thursday time frame. Temperatures should
be on the warmer side for Monday and Tuesday, but then cool off
later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A broad area of low pressure with two low pressure centers, one
over western North Dakota and another over eastern Iowa, will
bring light rain, reduced visibility, and lower ceilings to the
terminals this afternoon through Friday morning. While 1730Z
regional WSR-88D mosaic represents a precipitation-free area
over west-central Minnesota, surface observations indicate
drizzle and light precipitation with fog, mist, and reduced
visibility. Areas of heavier precipitation over northeast MN and
northwest WI produced pockets of MVFR visibility and a few IFR
ceilings. Think the trend toward lower flight categories will
overspread the terminals this afternoon and evening. Look for
LIFR conditions to develop at DLH, HIB, and HYR tonight. LLWS
will be a concern at BRD and INL overnight as a low-level jet
develops to the south and east of the Dakotas low as it moves
over northwest Minnesota into northwes32t Ontario. LLWS is
possible at HIB, although most guidance has that terminal
situated between two stronger axes of winds aloft. As the low
pressure systems push northeast of the region Friday morning,
expect flight categories to improve.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Northeast winds to gradually increase this morning, with gusts
of over 20kts beginning later this morning and continuing into
the evening before diminishing once again overnight. As this
will create conditions hazardous to small craft, have issued a
Small Craft Advisory for the southwest arm, North Shore and
around the Apostle Islands for late morning through early
evening. A trough axis moving across the area will cause these
northeast winds to switch to southwest overnight tonight and
early Friday as well. On Friday these southwest winds will ramp
up again from mid morning until late afternoon, perhaps causing
another period of hazardous conditions for small craft. Once the
winds decrease on Friday evening, winds will remain less than
15 knots Friday night and Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT
     Friday for LSZ140>142-147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...LE