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000
FNUS73 KDLH 161043
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Wilson Flowage RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 16.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today in the Wilson
Flowage burn area. A layer of low-level dry air is expected to be
over the burn site this morning into mid afternoon, reducing min
RH to 20% by this afternoon. These dry conditions will be
occurring along with very strong winds from the east at 12-21 mph
with gusts as high as 37 mph this afternoon. Low pressure
approaching northern WI is expected to bring rain showers starting
over the burn site this evening around 2000. While rain could
start as soon as 1700, the dry air near the surface will likely
keep these showers elevated until 2000. These rain showers will
persist through Wednesday, with a small chance (20%) for an
isolated thunderstorm or two.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    increasing to 37 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 30 mph increasing to 31 to 36
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (18400-33200 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (66800-89000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                                    SCH
Weather type....                                    RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20
Temp............42  46  51  54  56  58  59  59  59  58
RH..............50  40  34  31  29  26  25  22  20  21
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..11  13  15  16  17  17  18  20  21  21
20 FT wind gust.18  19  21  23  25  27  29  30  32  33
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE
Transp wind spd.21  24  24  29  29  30  31  33  36  36
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100018  33  43  62  67  72  78  84  89  84

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers in the
                    evening, then rain showers likely and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to around 36
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 28 to 37 mph decreasing to 26 to 28
                    mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (83500 knot-ft) decreasing to fair to
                    good (23700-30700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.47 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     80     90     60     30     20
Temp............56     50     44     42     40     38
RH..............22     39     70     86     89     85
20 ft wind......E 22   E 22   E 22   E 22   E 20   E 17
20 ft wind gust.35     36     36     36     33     32
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   1300   1400   1000   1100   1100
Transport wind..E 37   E 30   SE 31  SE 29  SE 28  SE 26
Haines index....5      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100084     33     37     26     26     26

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning, then rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph shifting to the south around 9
                    mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 25 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 14 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the west 10 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (11300-30600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.26 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     90     90     90     80     80
Temp............39     41     44     48     51     52
RH..............82     89     100    96     86     83
20 ft wind......E 16   E 15   E 13   E 12   SE 10  SE 8
20 ft wind gust.29     25     23     20     16     13
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1400   1300   1300   1300   1300
Transport wind..SE 24  E 25   SE 23  SE 18  S 14   W 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100020     31     26     21     15     11

$$
Forecaster...Woody
Requested by...Mike Solarz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410953.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.solarz@usda.gov