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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 130833
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE POLAR JET
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD...ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL TROUGH
MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE NRN PLAINS.

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN MT...
00Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA DEPICT AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
WITH PW VALUES FROM 0.80 TO 1 INCH. THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AT
LEAST A MODESTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO SW/W-CNTRL MT. GIVEN
THE STRONG UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW...THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE
AREA FROM EXTREME NE OREGON NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND INTO W-CNTRL MT
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER RH VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT MAY SUPPORT SOME DRY TSTMS.
MOIST FUELS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DRY TSTM COVERAGE PRECLUDES A
CRITICAL DELINEATION.

ADDITIONALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...STRONG WLY/SWLY WINDS
AROUND 25-35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 80S IN SW/W-CNTRL MT TO NEAR 90 ACROSS SRN
ID WITH RESULTANT RH VALUES FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT BUT...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...FUELS ARE MOIST AND NO AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.

...ERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30/LOW 40S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THESE DRY CONDITIONS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NWLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...
DRY NW FLOW AND HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES FROM
15-20 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 05/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
