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000
FNUS21 KWNS 121637
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121700Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...SW UT...NW AZ...FAR
ERN CA...

...MUCH OF NV...SW UT...NW AZ...FAR ERN CA...
RECENT WV SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST...MOVING NEWD...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARDS NRN CA. THESE SHORTWAVES
ARE ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO MATCHES WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SLY/SWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WAS REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RH VALUES ALREADY BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ...AND SW UT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS CNTRL NV WITH RH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

IN ALL...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MESH WELL
WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. AS SUCH...CRITICAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WRN
GREAT BASIN.

...PARTS OF NRN/WRN UT INTO SW/S-CNTRL WY...
FUEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOSTLY MOIST FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...DESPITE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE
CRITICAL AREA FARTHER SW...A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE DELINEATED.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN CO...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY WARM. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
OBSERVED A DEEP EML SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FOOTHILLS/ERN
PLAINS. 16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WAS
REALIZED. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH RH
VALUES GENERALLY AOB 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...PRECLUDING CRITICAL ISSUANCE...BUT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER.. 06/12/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AS PACIFIC NW UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. HOT SFC TEMPERATURES AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...MUCH OF NV...SW UT...NW AZ...FAR ERN CA...
GUSTY SW SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. WIND SPEEDS
NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AND RH VALUES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 5-12 PERCENT RANGE.

...PARTS OF NRN/WRN UT INTO SW/S-CNTRL WY...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...FUEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD AT THIS TIME
SO THE CRITICAL HAS NOT BEEN EXPANDED INTO THESE AREAS DESPITE
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN CO...
BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE/I-25
CORRIDOR...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN ON
TUESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS THIS
OCCURS...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 6-12 PERCENT RANGE WITH S/SE
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH /WINDS NEAR AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MAY BE MORE SWLY/.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...