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000
FXUS63 KEAX 100527
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures for the rest of this week and above normal
temperatures through this weekend

- Rain showers for south/eastern portions of our region
  Wednesday and Thursday

- Chance for advisory level winds Thursday across the region

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Currently, there is some weak mid to upper level ridging upstream of
the region. The associated high pressure system at the surface is to
our west over western KS. This is the reason for lighter winds out
of the northwest and clear skies. This is well highlighted in the
dewpoints with a 15-20 degree difference between the northern and
southern MO. To our south, over eastern TX, there is a surface low
with wraparound moisture. As the surface low progresses further
northwest, cloud coverage is expected to increase in the mid levels
across the area into Wednesday morning. Wednesday is forecasted to
be fairly similar to Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s and lows in
upper 40s. Wednesday night, as the surface low to our south begins
to move more northerly, some showers and thunderstorms may develop
out ahead of the associated warm front. Some of this precipitation
may clip the southern and eastern portions of the area Wednesday
overnight into Thursday.

As the low pressure system continues to push to the northeast winds
will shift to a northwesterly direction. As the pressure gradient
strengthens with the low, winds behind the surface low may
potentially gust as high as advisory level. These cooler, gusty
breezes will help to drop temperatures but only briefly. As the low
is quickly pushed out by an upstream ridge, advisory level winds are
only expected to stick around for Thursday afternoon into the
evening. High temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 60s.
As a strong high pressure system continues to build into the area
winds will weaken and skies will clear out. Friday, winds will shift
to a westerly direction and temperatures will slowly begin to warm.
With clear skies and plenty of insolation, high temperatures will be
able to warm to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Going into the weekend, winds will shift to the south as stout upper
level ridging moves to the east of the region resulting in a start
to warming trend. With steady warm air advection, Sunday high
temperatures can get as high as the upper 80s. We are forecasted to
stay around that range through the start of next week. Guidance
shows the next major system pushing through next Wednesday. There
may be a chance for thunderstorms, however we will continue to
monitor this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Clear skies to start the overnight hours but a VFR stratus deck
will slowly filter and should be overcast by the middle of the
morning for most of the TAF sites. Most of the ceilings should
be at least 10,000ft which will maintain VFR conditions. Winds
generally around 10 kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB/Collier
AVIATION...Krull