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FNUS74 KEPZ 250000
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Spot Forecast for Cameron RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
600 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
The first of three Pacific storm systems passed Sunday with very
strong winds and intermittent showers. A second storm passes Monday
with similar precipitation chances and more breezy to windy conditions.
Conditions will be cool, with elevated RH and variably cloudy conditions.
The third disturbance will move across the region Tuesday, keeping our
weather unsettled, with plenty of clouds, more rain/snow chances, cooler
than normal temperatures, elevated RH, and breezy winds. Conditions will
dry and warm Wednesday with afternoon breezes.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain and snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....42-45.
Min humidity........52-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 20 to 23 mph with gusts to around 45
                    mph.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 30 mph increasing to around 39 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (124300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (171900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........82     58     59     59     52
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............31     35     38     41     41
RH..............85     78     70     62     59
20 ft wind......W 21   W 21   W 23   W 23   W 23
20 ft wind gust.38     44     43     43     46
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   4200   4200   5000   5000
Transport wind..W 24   W 30   W 30   W 39   W 39
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37     124    124    172    172
Ventrate Cat....POOR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in
                    the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 31 mph decreasing to around 18 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (4900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........51     51     31     32     32     36
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............39     36     33     33     32     30
RH..............62     67     78     75     78     85
20 ft wind......W 23   W 23   NW 23  W 20   W 20   W 16
20 ft wind gust.44     44     44     38     38     32
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   4400   300    300    900    900
Transport wind..W 31   W 31   W 18   W 18   W 18   W 18
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..152    152    5      5      17     17
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    and snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....42-45.
Min humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 17 mph with gusts to around 32
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (137500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (166500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........51        62        63        61
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      SNSHWR    SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        30        30
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............30        34        41        43
RH..............88        78        62        60
20 FT wind......W 15G29   W 15G29   W 16G31   W 17G32
Mix hgt (ft)....2600      2600      6100      6700
Transport wind..W 25      W 25      W 25      W 29
Haines index....2         2         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60        60        138       167
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Northwest winds around 13 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northeast winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Ranger District
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407949.4/EPZ
.DELDT 03/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachary.armijo@usda.gov


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