Spot Forecast Issued by NWS
000
FNUS74 KEPZ 250000
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
600 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
The first of three Pacific storm systems passed Sunday with very
strong winds and intermittent showers. A second storm passes Monday
with similar precipitation chances and more breezy to windy conditions.
Conditions will be cool, with elevated RH and variably cloudy conditions.
The third disturbance will move across the region Tuesday, keeping our
weather unsettled, with plenty of clouds, more rain/snow chances, cooler
than normal temperatures, elevated RH, and breezy winds. Conditions will
dry and warm Wednesday with afternoon breezes.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain and snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....42-45.
Min humidity........52-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 20 to 23 mph with gusts to around 45
mph.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 30 mph increasing to around 39 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (124300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (171900
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........82 58 59 59 52
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............31 35 38 41 41
RH..............85 78 70 62 59
20 ft wind......W 21 W 21 W 23 W 23 W 23
20 ft wind gust.38 44 43 43 46
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 4200 4200 5000 5000
Transport wind..W 24 W 30 W 30 W 39 W 39
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37 124 124 172 172
Ventrate Cat....POOR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in
the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 31 mph decreasing to around 18 mph
in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(4900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........51 51 31 32 32 36
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............39 36 33 33 32 30
RH..............62 67 78 75 78 85
20 ft wind......W 23 W 23 NW 23 W 20 W 20 W 16
20 ft wind gust.44 44 44 38 38 32
Mix hgt (ft)....4400 4400 300 300 900 900
Transport wind..W 31 W 31 W 18 W 18 W 18 W 18
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..152 152 5 5 17 17
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
and snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....42-45.
Min humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 17 mph with gusts to around 32
mph.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (137500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (166500
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........51 62 63 61
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............30 34 41 43
RH..............88 78 62 60
20 FT wind......W 15G29 W 15G29 W 16G31 W 17G32
Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 6100 6700
Transport wind..W 25 W 25 W 25 W 29
Haines index....2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60 60 138 167
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Northwest winds around 13 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northeast winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Ranger District
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407949.4/EPZ
.DELDT 03/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachary.armijo@usda.gov