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000
FXUS62 KFFC 210611
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Weak surface boundary is situated across south central Georgia this
afternoon. The old boundary will remain nearly stationary through
Sunday afternoon before shifting southward into northern Florida by
the evening. High pressure begins to build in from the west overnight
Sunday.

The nearly stationary front will be the main focus for any
precipitation development overnight and into the first half of
Sunday. In addition, several strong shortwaves will move east in the
flow, providing an excellent source of lift along with the
convergence along the front. The best CAPE may be shunted to southern
portions of the state, but there should be enough surface
instability available for isold to scattered thunderstorms through
Sunday afternoon, especially along and just south of the front. To
the north of the boundary, widespread showers are most likely with
some embedded thunder. Strong storms are possible, especially this
afternoon across the southern third of the CWA. An isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The potential for severe weather
should wane with the loss of heating, but isolated strong storms
could be possible overnight/early Sunday - especially south of Macon
to Columbus. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with any strong
storms. With PWATs around 1.5" south of I-20, locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible.

There is some differences between the models on the overall
evolution of the pops with this system. The HRRR performed fairly
well in the short term period yesterday, so have trended this way for
the afternoon. The ARW precip pattern looks more reasonable for
overnight and the first half of Sunday and have trended close to it
during this period. Drying/clearing is expected for late tomorrow
afternoon into the overnight hours.

Temps tomorrow will likely average around 10 to 20 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Thick cloud cover and widespread rain
will limit heating across much of the forecast area. A cooler and
drier airmass will settle across north and central GA Sunday night.
Mins should range from the mid 30s in the far NE mtns to around 50 in
the SE. Will have to monitor the far NE portions of the state for
frost potential. Winds may diminish, but there could be enough clouds
around to prohibit good radiational cooling and keeping frost more
patchy in nature.NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The bulk of the long term period will be fairly nondescript after
the departure of Sunday`s rainfall. Surface high pressure will slide
overhead from Monday into Tuesday, bringing sunny, dry, and cooler
conditions. Monday will be the coolest day of the period with highs
remaining in the 60s areawide, some 10+ degrees below normal. Tuesday
morning lows will dip at least into the 40s areawide, with some
upper 30s possible across far north Georgia as clear skies and calm
winds maximize radiational cooling.

A warming trend then begins from Tuesday into midweek as low level
flow becomes southerly as the surface high shifts eastward. Still,
Tuesday and Tuesday night will remain on the cool side, likely a few
degrees below normal. A weak frontal boundary looks to dip into the
area from Wednesday into Thursday, though the forecast remains dry
given very little moisture in place. In fact, rain chances look to
hold off until at least next weekend. Temperatures by next weekend
also rebound, likely returning a few degrees above normal.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms have shifted E of the
Atlanta metro area terminals. Isolated thunderstorms will continue at
MCN and AHN for the next couple of hours. Areas of mostly stratiform
rain with embedded heavier showers will continue through early to
mid-afternoon. Cigs will continue to lower until rains come to an
end, then cigs will begin to lift and gradually thin from the NW.
Winds will be generally light, although some gusts to near 20 knots
are expected during the afternoon at Atlanta area terminals. Wind
directions will continue mostly out of the NW, although NE winds are
expected at AHN during the morning and early afternoon as a weak
wedge temporarily develops.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium for cig heights and minimum vsby reductions in rain, high for
other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  65  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         47  64  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     39  63  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    41  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        48  69  46  75 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     46  64  43  71 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           50  67  44  74 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            43  66  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  45  66  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         53  66  47  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SEC