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000
FXUS64 KFWD 091839
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Now through Thursday Morning/

North and Central Texas will continue to see on and off chances
for showers and storms through tomorrow morning as abundant lift
remains overtop a warm, moist, unstable airmass. The upper low
supplying our large-scale lift is currently over far west Texas
and will continue east through midweek. Meanwhile, a slow moving
surface boundary remains draped across our Central Texas counties,
as seen by an east to south wind shift.

The severe weather threat remains present for areas mainly south
of I-20 through the overnight periods, with large hail the main
concern for most. How well this threat pans out over the rest of
this afternoon and evening, however, is uncertain. Storms across
Central Texas have been relatively tame over the last few hours.
Rap Analysis shows lower instability across North Texas, with less
around 250 J/kg or less CAPE. Better chances of strong to severe
storms remains across our Central Texas counties closer to the
surface boundary, where more instability is present.

The main concern is transitioning to more of a flooding threat
midweek the upper and surface low track from far West Texas to
the Ark-La- Tex. While not everyone has observed a wetting
rainfall this go- around, sites across our East Texas and
southeastern Central Texas counties have received 4-6 inches over
the last 36 hours. With additional rounds of convection expected
to train across those areas around the time of the morning and
afternoon commutes, the flash flooding concern will really ramp up
as another 2-3" is expected. The Flood Watch remains in effect
for our counties east of I-35 through Wednesday morning and may
need to be extended based on trends later this evening. If you
come across flooded roads, make sure to turn around.

As the low passes through on Wednesday afternoon and evening, a
swath of strong and gusty winds will move across the region. These
winds could near Wind Advisory Criteria, but will hold off on
issuing an Advisory at this time. After a dreary midweek, skies
will clear out behind the departing storm system, with generally
clear conditions by Thursday morning. Cooler temperatures in the
40s and 50s will greet us on our way out the door.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

After a very active start of the week, one final round of showers
and storms is expected on Wednesday as the main upper level
trough moves over the southern Plains. Areas across North Texas
will have the best rain chances as wrap around precipitation
develops near the main upper low during the day. Sufficient
elevated instability with steep mid-level lapse rates may support
a few strong to marginally severe storms with hail as the main
threat. However, the highest potential for severe weather will
stay east of our CWA.

Rain chances will finally taper off Wednesday night as high
pressure builds overhead. Dry, breezy, and seasonable conditions
will persist through the end of the week with a warming trend
over the weekend. High temperatures will range from the 60s and
70s on Wednesday climbing into the mid 70s to 80s by Friday.
Beyond the nice weekend weather ahead, low rain chances will
return early next week as the next system approaches the region.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Relatively dismal flying conditions will continue over the next
24-30 hours as multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected
to move through the TAF sites. There will be a break within the
precipitation late this afternoon and evening, but another round
is expected from daybreak through the morning, bringing even
lower cigs and vis within the heavier precipitation. IFR to MVFR
conditions are expected at the airports through the period, but
will likely teeter between categories. Easterly to northeasterly
winds will prevail, but will shift to the north just before
daybreak.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  60  68  52  73 /  90  70  50  10   0
Waco                68  58  68  50  73 / 100  70  20   5   0
Paris               66  61  69  50  69 /  90  80  90  30   0
Denton              68  56  66  47  71 /  90  70  60  10   0
McKinney            68  60  67  49  70 /  90  70  70  20   0
Dallas              70  61  68  52  73 /  90  70  50  10   0
Terrell             67  60  70  50  70 /  90  80  60  20   0
Corsicana           66  61  72  51  73 / 100  80  30  10   0
Temple              73  57  70  49  75 / 100  70  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       67  53  65  46  72 /  90  60  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-146>148-161.

&&

$$