Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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610 FXUS64 KFWD 102254 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ While cooler and drier air has invaded the region behind yesterday`s front, the unstable airmass remains in place aloft. Elevated convection has fired across Central Texas this evening as isentropic lift on the 315K surface organized ahead of a passing shortwave in the fast zonal flow aloft. These scattered showers and storms are quickly moving eastward and will diminish in couple hours as the isentropic lift weakens. Isentropic analysis on the 310-315K surfaces Saturday show another round of intense lift mainly Saturday afternoon spreading across North Texas with another shortwave trough. Once again, given the steep lapse rates and ample moisture aloft, a round of high-based convection will occur. PoPs were increased over most model guidance, which often struggles to simulate the convective potential with these kinds of setups. Those engaged in outdoor activities Saturday afternoon and evening should be prepared for interruptions from the threat of nearby lightning and rainfall. While the severe weather threat should be low, small hail may occur with the stronger storms. Otherwise temperatures will be pleasantly cool and dry this evening with continued north/northeast winds. Lows will range from the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs tomorrow will be slightly tempered from the increased clouds/rain in the area during the afternoon resulting in highs only in the mid 70s across western North Texas to lower 80s elsewhere. TR.92 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ Update: The previous discussion captures next week`s forecast fairly well. North and Central Texas will continue in an active weather pattern with spouts of showers and storms every 2-3 days. During the dry periods, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Sunday Onward/ Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather, at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues, particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain totals of 1-2" are plausible. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow- moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer weather will prevail on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /0Z TAFs/ Elevated convection across Central Texas should diminish during the next few hours, and will continue to show VCTS and -RA at KACT through 00:30Z. This activity will remain south of the DFW area TAF sites. Another round of elevated convection (with bases near FL100) will move in from the west during the day Saturday. Due to dry air in the low levels this may result in turbulence initially, but precipitation should be heavy enough to saturate and reach the ground in the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates aloft, some thunderstorms with small hail is also expected. Will show -RA VCTS for all DFW area TAFs from 21z to 2z. But this round of activity should be north of KACT. Later shifts likely will need to adjust timing and coverage of expected convection. Otherwise north winds at 5-10kt overnight will gradually become easterly Saturday. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 79 64 73 65 / 10 50 30 70 60 Waco 63 77 64 74 67 / 20 30 30 90 50 Paris 57 79 61 75 62 / 10 20 10 30 70 Denton 59 78 60 72 63 / 10 40 30 70 60 McKinney 59 78 61 72 64 / 10 40 30 60 60 Dallas 64 79 64 72 65 / 10 40 30 70 60 Terrell 60 78 63 74 64 / 10 40 30 60 70 Corsicana 64 79 65 75 66 / 10 40 30 80 60 Temple 63 79 64 74 67 / 30 30 30 90 50 Mineral Wells 61 76 61 72 64 / 10 50 30 80 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$