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000
FXUS65 KGGW 110805
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
205 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures warm above average through the weekend with a few
  isolated convective rain showers, and even a few weak or dry
  thunderstorms.

- Pattern change with colder temperatures and precipitation
  including winter weather

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper ridge builds over the area today into late Friday which
will warm our temperatures up to well above average. At the same
time a Pacific trough and upper level Low will dig unusually far
south along the West Coast during the weekend. This feature will
throw a little moisture our way Friday evening, Saturday and
especially Sunday. Combined with the above average heat, this
could lead to a few convective rain showers and even a few
isolated weak or dry thunderstorms.

Things get more interesting on Monday as a second and stronger
trough and upper level Low dives south from the Gulf of Alaska and
this will bring a pattern change from late Spring to late Winter
weather. Depending on how much cold air gets brought into the area
this could be anything from a cold soaking rain to a late season
Winter Storm with accumulating snow. Will continue to monitor and
update accordingly.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on the warmer temperatures, with lower confidence
on any precipitation chances over the weekend, it will depend on
how far south the upper level Low goes before turning east and
northeastward. Any precipitation that does fall this weekend is
expected to be light.

Confidence is moderate to high on a pattern change with multiple
models showing the same scenario occurring. However the confidence
is low on temperatures and precipitation type as there`s a large
spread in temperature range.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions expected today and most of Friday. A
few isolated evening showers will be possible Friday evening.

WINDS: NW 5-10kts until 00Z, switching to SW-10kts between
00Z-03Z

-Bernhart


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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