Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm today. Continued warmth on Friday, but with
  breezier northwest winds.

- Only spotty chances for rain Friday night and again Saturday
  night.

- Medium chance (30-70%) for rain and snow Sunday night into
  Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Wednesday ended up warmer than expected, especially in the
snow-covered portions of the area. Therefore, today has trended
even warmer as upper level ridging moves overhead. Forecast high
temperatures range from the upper 50s in northern portions of
the area to the low 70s in portions of Kansas.

Cloud cover increases tonight as a shortwave passes to our
north. This will push a cold front through the area on Friday.
This will turn winds to the northwest, but the airmass behind
the front is not significantly cooler. Expected high
temperatures still range from the mid 50s to low 70s. A few
sprinkles/flurries are possible Friday night, but the chance for
anything measurable is very low (below 15%).

Saturday trends slightly cooler, and a chance for precipitation
(mainly rain) arrives with another low-amplitude shortwave. Best
chances favor the northern half of the area. The 00Z NAM shows
100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE, so it would not be totally surprising to
hear a few rumbles of thunder.

Exact timing/details vary amongst the deterministic models, but
a more well-defined upper low arrives Sunday night into Monday
will bring better chances for precipitation to the entire area.
Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the forecast period,
and some areas could see some snow. That said, all three of the 00Z
global ensembles show slightly decreased snow potential compared
to the 12Z guidance. Even the 01Z NBM (which does not
include the 00Z ensembles) decreased slightly, and only snows a
5-10% chance for 1" of snowfall over our northwestern half.

After this system exits the area, drier and warmer temperatures
are expected to return through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the
forecast period. A few high level clouds will move through the
region this afternoon and evening. Southwest to southerly winds
are expected to continue through the evening, becoming
southeasterly overnight ahead of a cold front. Expect winds to
become light and variable after midnight, eventually coming
from the northwest as the front arrives. Clouds increase
overnight ahead of the front. Some models are hinting at the
possibility of some fog, mainly in areas where snowpack remains.
Similar to yesterday, feel that the models are overdoing fog,
so have omitted any mention of this from prevailing conditions
for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wekesser


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