051
FXUS65 KGJT 282327
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
527 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers diminish this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes in
  the wake of today`s disturbance.

- Above normal temperatures return during the first half of the
  week.

- A fast moving system in northwest flow will bring another
  round of showers and localized thunderstorms to the eastern
  Uinta Mountains and northwest Colorado Monday night through
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Expect showers to diminish this evening in the wake of the weak
short wave passing over the forecast area now, along with
cooling surface temperatures helping stabilize the atmosphere.
Skies clear from west to east during the night, though clouds
are likely to hang on over the northern and central Colorado
mountains through sunrise Monday.

Flow becomes zonal on Monday as a trough sweeps from the West
Coast to the Great Basin during the day. An increased pressure
gradient across the north should lead to breezy afternoon winds.
Warm air advection combined with morning sunshine will lead to
warmer temperatures Monday afternoon with readings expected
climb to near 5 degrees above seasonal norms for most locations.
A modest push of moisture ahead of the trough combined the
destabilizing effect of surface warming may lead to isolated
showers/thunderstorms over the eastern Uinta Mountains as well
as the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains during the
afternoon.

Shower chances ramp up Monday evening and become likely across
the northwest Colorado plateau and the northern Colorado
mountains overnight. This fast moving system is expected to
deliver up to 6 inches of new snow across portions of the Park
Range, mainly above 9,000 feet. More scattered activity is
expected along the I-70 corridor east of the Debeque Canyon and
portions of the Grand Mesa and central Colorado mountains. Areas
to the south will see little chance for precipitation from this
quick hitting storm. Despite pushing a cold front to near the
I-70 corridor, overnight lows are expected to show little change
as gradient driven winds keep the lower levels mixed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The quick moving shortwave and cold front that tracked along the
Wyoming and Colorado border and brought showers to the northern tier
of the CWA Monday night will be long gone by the mid morning hours
on Tuesday. In its wake, mainly dry weather is in store for the
remainder of the day with temperatures near to above normal across
the south and near to below normal across the north. There may be an
isolated returning pop-up shower along the Continental Divide
Tuesday afternoon, but that would be about it.

Wednesday into Thursday, another trough is progged to dig south and
eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and across the northern Four
Corners states, towing a cold front along with it. Ahead of this
system, the pressure gradient tightens and kicks up the winds a good
bit Wednesday afternoon with gusts upwards of 35 to 45 mph. Near
critical fire weather conditions may be a concern across the lower
elevations of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado where relative
humidities dip into the teens. Up north and along the Continental
Divide mountains, precipitation is likely to break out along the
front with rain in the valleys and snow in the highest
elevations...mainly above 9000 to 10000 feet. Farther south, dry air
in the lowest levels may keep much precipitation from reaching the
ground, at least initially. Any virga would only enhance the winds
in those areas. The evolution of this system beyond Wednesday
remains somewhat uncertain, primarily as a result of how fast the
trough ejects eastward. Most guidance is fairly quick with
conditions improving by Thursday afternoon. The GFS on the other
hand is much slower and doesn`t clear precipitation out until
Thursday night. For now, will lean towards the faster solutions
while keeping the GFS in mind as a less favored potential outcome.
Either way, Thursday will end up much cooler in the wake of the
front with highs several degrees below normal.

For Friday and Saturday, the pattern looks mainly dry aside from a
couple weak waves brushing the far northern tier of the CWA. Perhaps
these waves can squeeze out a shower or two in the northern
mountains, but otherwise it`s more likely to stay dry with limited
moisture and ridging trying to build in from the west. This will
also allow temperatures to quickly warm back up with highs returning
to well above seasonal norms by the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers and storms continue to impact most terminals across
eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon. These showers
will continue through sunset before tapering off, with main
threats of gusty and erratic winds, heavy precipitation reducing
visibility, and occasional lightning. Occasional drops to
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible as showers move overhead,
through 6z tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Showers diminish and skies clear tonight,
with winds becoming light and following typical terrain driven
patterns. Look for increasingly gusty southwest winds tomorrow
afternoon, as well as a few mountain showers.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...MDM
AVIATION...TGJT