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000
FXUS62 KGSP 150229
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1029 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will linger to our south into the first half
of the week giving our region above normal temperatures.
A backdoor front will drop south from Virginia late Monday and
Monday night bringing a few showers and thunderstorms, but the front
quickly retreats back north on Tuesday.  Another frontal system will
approach our area from the west through the middle of the week, and
could bring more showers and thunderstorms by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT Sunday: No changes were needed for this forecast
update. Weak short wave is noticeable on mid-level Water Vapor
imagery, which is pushing a mid-level cloud deck into the southern
portion of the CFWA. Otherwise, adjusted a few weather elements
groups based on current observations and latest trends in the
models.

The forecast area should remain on the leading edge of a
low amplitude mid/upper ridge through Monday, which has some
repercussions for the approach of a weak cold front Monday
late afternoon. In the mean time, another fair weather night is
expected as a sfc high pressure ridge over the Southeast remains
in control. Moisture may increase a bit overnight with a light SW
flow, but the main result will be min temps on the order of ten
degrees warmer than last night. The fair weather should continue
into the morning on Monday, then from noon onward we look to the
north to monitor the progress of a weak front. This is the same
boundary that will focus the thunderstorm threat over OH/PA this
afternoon and eve, and then southeast VA/northeast NC Monday. With
the ridge holding strong, it would appear the front will not make
much southward progress through the afternoon. The CAMs show a
few showers approaching the srn border of VA by the end of the
daytime period, but not enough of a push to bring anything this
far south. For that reason, the precip chances we had late Monday
were curtailed to a slight chance over the nrn mountains at the
end of the period. The bigger story might be the warm temps,
which should be on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal, but
should fall short of records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EDT Sunday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with upper ridging in place over the Southeast and upper
trofing centered well to our north over New England and a closed
upper low moving over the SW CONUS. Over the next couple of days,
the upper low will lift northeast towards the Great Lakes and act
to flatten the upper ridge over our area. By the end of the period
late Wednesday, the upper low is expected to be centered over the
western Great Lakes and starting to get absorbed by another broad
upper trof amplifying over southern Canada. At the sfc, what is left
of a diffuse frontal bndy/lee trof will linger over our area as the
period begins late Monday. This could result in some lingering
showers and even a few thunderstorms over our northern zones into
early Tuesday. Over the next couple of days, a robust low pressure
system will lift out of the Great Plains and move a cold front to
our doorstep towards the end of the period late Wed. Over the past
couple of days, most of the model guidance has been trending slower
wrt the progression of the low and its associated frontal bndy. At
present, it`s looking like the front won`t move thru our area until
just beyond the short-term period, on Thursday. Regardless, we can
expect warm, predominately SWLY low-level flow across our area thru
the period as we remain under the western fringe of the Bermuda High.
Temperatures will remain well-above normal for mid-April thru the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:05 PM EDT Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Thursday with a closed upper low opening back up and moving up and
over the Great Lakes. Over the next 24 hrs or so, what`s left of the
low will get absorbed by a reinforcing upper trof/closed low that
moves southeast out of central Canada. This system will continue to
translate southeast into next weekend and act to flatten/suppress
the upper ridging over our region. At the sfc, a robust low pressure
system will be lifting over the western Great Lakes and moving a
fairly dry cold front to our fcst area as the period begins late
Wednesday/early Thursday. The progression of this frontal system
has been trending slower over the past couple of days with most of
the current guidance moving it thru our fcst area on Thursday. In
its wake, the sfc pattern remains progressive, however model solu-
tions diverge wrt exactly where and when the next low will develop.
It`s looking more likely that we will see brief drying on Friday
and another low developing just to our NW over the weekend along
a moist frontal boundary. Regardless, there is good consensus that
by the end of the period early next week, broad Canadian high pre-
ssure will spread over our area from the NW and bring dry wx to the
region. Temperatures will start out well-above climatology and likely
cool to near-normal, if not below, by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through the period. Southwesterly winds will become light overnight.
FEW/SCT 150-200 cloud deck will make a run through the Upstate TAF
sites through this evening and into the overnight. Winds pick back
up out of the southwest by mid-morning Monday. Low-end gusts will be
possible once again during peak heating. Can`t rule out a shower at
KAVL/KHKY late Monday afternoon, but confidence is too low for a TAF
mention at this time and could occur after 00Z Tuesday. Did
introduce mid-level clouds in association with this potential.

Outlook: Some brief low VFR to MVFR clouds may develop Monday night
and Tuesday as a result of a weak frontal zone developing to our
north. Otherwise VFR generally will persist through midweek under
high pressure regime.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CAC