Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 280327
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1127 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will develop along a stalled frontal boundary over
the eastern Carolinas, keeping clouds and intermittent rain
along and east of Interstate 77 through early Thursday then the
front will move to the East Coast. Drier and warmer weather is
expected Friday into the first part of next week.  A cold front is
forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the
week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:55 PM EDT Wednesday: We have seen an increase in shower
coverage across the eastern third of our CWA over the past few hrs
with some of the more robust cells producing some cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes. This shower coverage should diminish once we
get into the overnight and early morning and the better upper-lvl
support shifts further eastward. With cloud cover expected to remain
bkn to ovc across most of our area thru the overnight, low temps
should remain about a category above climo outside the mtns, and
near climo over the mtns.

Otherwise, very broad upper trofing will continue to gradually push
a stubborn upper ridge east of our area and off the Atlantic Coast
tonight and tomorrow. The trof axis is expected to move over our
CWA late Thursday and then lift offshore by the end of the period,
early Friday. In its wake, heights will begin to recover as broad
upper ridging begins to spread back over the region. At the sfc,
a moist coastal low is currently in the process of spinning up
along the extreme Southeast Coast. Over the next several hours,
this low will move up the SE Coast and strengthen moderately. As
Thursday wears on, broad sfc high pressure will overspread our
area from the west and help push the low NE and further off the
coast and bring drier air back to our area. This interaction be-
tween the low and high will cause the pressure gradient to tighten
across the Western Carolinas and winds will become gusty by late
morning. Speeds should remain below Advisory criteria except for
maybe an occasional gust at the highest elevations. In addition,
RH values will likely drop below 25% for most of our non-mtn zones
by mid-afternoon, so Fire Danger Statements could be needed across
our area, especially over NE Georgia. With clearing skies on Thurs,
high temps are expected to approach climatology over much of the
Upstate and NE Georgia, but will likely remain a few degrees below
climo over the NC Piedmont and 1 to 2 categories below climo over
the NC mtns thanks to more robust cold-air advection over the higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday: Post-frontal drying continues Thursday
night and under a clear sky, temperatures will fall quickly. The
loss of post-frontal winds will allow the atmosphere to decouple and
give way to good radiative cooling with pockets of frost possible by
daybreak.  Deep layered dry air to result in sunshine for Friday as
downslope aided warming boosts piedmont maximums to around 70. We
are shaping up to be under a deep and warming westerly flow into
Saturday with lower elevation maximum temperatures climbing into the
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday: Low amplitude upper ridging remains in
place to start off the period with warm sector and downslope warming
boosting piedmont max temperatures into the lower 80s for Easter
Sunday.  Token small pop will be maintained for NW NC closer to the
developing ohio valley baroclinic zone.  Upper heights are progged
to rise even further to start off the work week/April atop the SE
CONUS.   Expect a mostly suppressed atmosphere on Monday, with
further warming, a few degrees above persistence.  Just like Sunday,
token later day shower chances will be maintained for NW NC.

During the latter half of the period, energy diving into the central
CONUS will eject eastward, driving a robust cold front into and
through the cwfa.  It is probable that ridging will hang tough into
Tuesday resulting in another warm day in the piedmont with diurnally
enhanced storms firing around the ridge periphery, in the NC mtns.
Latest timing of a early cold fropa next Wednesday may enhance
storms east of the cwfa, we`ll see.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...All taf sites are currently VFR except
for KCLT, where IFR cigs are expected to linger thru the over-
night. Cigs there should lift to MVFR by sunrise and continue
to lift to low-end VFR a few hrs later. They should sct out by
mid-aftn as profiles dry out. I kept a TEMPO for RA at KCLT for
the first few hrs of the taf and keep a mention of precip thru
roughly 13z using either a VCSH and/or a PROB30. I cannot rule
out lightning at the terminal over the next several hrs, but I
felt the chances were too low to mention in the taf. Otherwise,
the other taf sites should remain VFR thru the period, with VFR
cigs eventually sct out by the early aftn. Outside of the mtns,
winds will gradually back to a more NLY direction overnight and
into the morning and increase in speed. They will remain NLY to
NWLY for the rest of the day, with low-end gusts in the 17 to
24 kt range. At KAVL, winds will remain NWLY to NLY thru the taf
period and strengthen overnight as the pressure gradient tightens
over the area. They can expect stronger gusts in the 20 to 30 kt
range beginning overnight and continuing thru the day on Thursday.


Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the fcst
area thru the weekend as dry high pressure lingers over the region.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT


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