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000
FXUS62 KGSP 212222
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
622 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler temperatures and widespread rain will continue the rest
of today before drier conditions return tonight into Monday as high
pressure builds into the region. Warmer weather returns on Tuesday
with dry conditions persisting over the area. Warm temperatures will
linger through the workweek despite a weak cold front tracking
across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. This front may lead to
rain showers along the Tennessee border Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 6:05 PM EDT Sunday: Other than some light precip lingering
just east of the I-77 corridor, the rain showers have ended across
our CWA. We`ve also seen a decent amount of clearing across our
western zones over the past few hours as drier air works its way
into the area. This trend will continue thru the evening, however
we will probably see an uptick in cloud coverage over the NC/TN
border region as most of the guidance suggests an uptick in low-
level moisture within the NWLY later tonight. It`s doubtful that
they will see any additional showers. Although widespread frost
is not expected to develop over the NC mtns largely due to the
elevated NLY winds, I did go ahead and issue a Frost Advisory
for Graham, Swain, and Macon counties in effect from 2am to 9am
Monday morning as winds will likely be weaker over those zones.

Otherwise, a moist sfc bndry and its associated rain showers will
continue to gradually move east and out of our area. Expect addi-
tional clearing across our fcst area tonight as cloud cover becomes
more sct east of the mtns. Temps will become fairly cold tonight
due to CAA and clearing skies. Expect lows in the  upper 30s to
mid 40s across non-mtns and low to mid 30s across the NC mtns.
Frosty temps will likely be reached across the higher mtn ridges,
however elevated sfc winds should limit the frost potential east
of the mtns. Broad high pressure will continue to spread over the
fcst area on Monday, which will make for mostly sunny skies and
highs roughly 8 to 10 degrees below normal within persistent NLY
low-level flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday: Dry sfc high pressure will linger over the
Southeast Monday night into Tuesday leading to continued dry weather
and mostly clear skies. Great radiational cooling conditions as well
as light winds may allow for some patchy frost development Monday
night into daybreak Tuesday across portions of the NC Foothills and
northern NC Piedmont. However, lows Monday night look borderline at
best (despite being several degrees below climo) for frost
development in these areas so confidence is low. Lows Monday night
will dip into the mid 30s across the mountains, with the upper 30s
to lower 40s expected elsewhere. Despite the colder temps across the
mountains, frost formation is not expected in the central/southern
NC mountains (where the growing season is active) as forecast
dewpoint depressions are too large at this time. Temps on Tuesday
will be noticeably warmer thanks to great insolation and S/SW winds.
Highs will climb into the lower 70s across east of the mountains and
across the mountain valleys. Despite the warmer temps, highs will
still end up a few degrees below climo.

A cold front will approach out of the NW Tuesday night allowing
cloud cover to increase across the northern half of the forecast
area. Increased cloud cover along with S/SW`ly flow remaining in
place ahead of the front, will lead to much warmer lows Tuesday
night. Thus, frost development is not expected to be a concern. Lows
should end up a few degrees above climo, ranging from the mid 40s to
lower 50s across the forecast area. The cold front will track across
the forecast area on Wednesday, allowing winds across the mountains
to turn NW`ly. Winds east of the mountains will turn W`ly.
Downsloping flow will allow highs on Wednesday to climb several
degrees warmer east of the mountains compared to Tuesday`s highs.
Thus, temps will remain a few degrees above climo Wednesday
afternoon. Rain showers may develop along the NC/TN border on
Wednesday thanks to the cold front, so have slight chance PoPs for
these locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: The aforementioned cold front will push
east of the western Carolinas Wednesday evening. High pressure will
build into the eastern CONUS Thursday into Friday, lingering over
the East Coast through the weekend. The latest global model guidance
is not in great agreement regarding on whether or not we will remain
dry during the long term forecast period and the GFS looks to be the
wetter solution compared to the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian. Thus,
confidence on PoPs will be low due to model disagreement. Went with
dry conditions Wednesday night into Thursday night and chance PoPs
across the western and northern zones (per global models) Friday
into the weekend. Lows will remain above normal through the period.
High temps start out a few degrees below climo on Friday, thanks to
increased cloud cover, becoming near climo on Saturday thanks to a
slight decrease in cloud cover and S`ly flow. Highs on Sunday look
to top out around 10 degrees above climo thanks to mostly sunny
skies and SW`ly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixed bag of rain and MVFR/IFR flight cats
across the area this afternoon. Expect a band of heavier precip
currently across the Upstate to help maintain IFR conds and bring
IFR CIGs to KCLT by 20z. General improving conds to MVFR and VFR
later this afternoon as drier air filters in from the north. Winds
remain aligned n/ly to ne/ly outside the mtns with periodic low-end
gusts possible as an insitu wedge pattern persists. Winds at KAVL
remain aligned nw/ly thru the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions continue Monday thru mid-week as high
pressure builds over the region from the west.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ051-058-062.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT/SBK