Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Today was a fairly wet day across SE Texas as a coastal low
brought scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area. Rain showers with the occasional rumble of thunder will
persist through this evening with the ending event being a line of
thunderstorms moving in from the west tonight as the upperlevel
shortwave moves through. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for severe thunderstorms with this line of storms. This threat
is very conditional though as the atmosphere has been fairly
worked over with the preceding showers and storms. If storms are
able to become strong to severe, then hail and strong winds would
be the primary concerns. This line will move through B/CS area by
11pm to midnight, Houston Metro between 1am and 3am, and then out
to the area by 3 or 4am. There may be some wrap around moisture
bringing some isolated showers to the Piney Woods area through
Friday morning. Patchy fog will also be possible tonight,
especially west of the Brazos River, as skies clear over the wet
grounds. Otherwise, the rest of the short term will be fairly
pleasant with clearing skies.

Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s north of
Harris County, and then low 60s along I-10 and southwards.
Afternoon high temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid
70s across the area with low temperatures Friday night down into
the low to mid 50s for most of the region.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Gorgeous conditions are expected on Saturday as high pressure
filters behind the exiting low pressure system along with weak
ridging aloft. Clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions are
expected to continue through Sunday morning. Southerly flow picks up
Sunday as the high pressure slides to the east and a deepening low
pressure forms in the Central Plains. The southerly flow will bring
higher moisture into the area, with PWATs up to 1.2-1.5" by Sunday
evening. We may even see some light streamer showers pop up across
the area Sunday night out ahead of an approaching cold front. This
front is associated with that system moving through the Central
Plains into the Midwest Sunday into Monday with the cold front
draped down through South Texas. Guidance has been fairly
consistent with FROPA occurring in SE Texas Monday afternoon into
Monday night with showers and thunderstorms accompanying the
front. As the front is moving across the area, there will be an
upper level shortwave passing overhead helping to enhance the
thunderstorms along the front. How strong the thunderstorms will
be is still a bit uncertain as that will likely be determined by
the strength and timing of that shortwave. The cold front exits to
the east by Tuesday morning with high pressure returning for
midweek next week.

High temperatures through the long term will be fairly consistent
with afternoon maxes staying in the 70s - though varying a few
degrees each day. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the mid
to upper 50s, but then increase to low to mid 60s for much of the
area Sunday night thanks to the increased southerly flow. Cooler
nights follow thanks the passage of the cold front on Monday with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s through Wednesday
night.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas of SH/TS continue to move across Southeast TX, in particular
over areas near and north of I-10. The storm that passed just
south of the IAH rwy had reports of quarter size hail, frequent
lightning, and VRB gusty winds. Activity will decrease this
evening, but another line of showers and storms associated with a
cold front will move across the region from around 04-08Z tonight.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and hail can accompany the
stronger storms.

MVFR to IFR cigs will continue through much of the TAF period.
Gradual improvement in clouds decks is expected Fri morning, with
VFR conditions expected by Fri afternoon. E-SE winds this evening
at around 10 KTS with gusts to around 20 KTS (outside of storms).
Winds will become NW early Fri and will strengthen as the day
progresses.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Galveston Bay and the
Gulf Waters off of Galveston through this evening as onshore flow
of 15 to 25kts and gusts to 30kts persist. Small craft should also
exercise caution in the Gulf waters off of Matagorda as there are
occasional wind gusts to 20 to 25 kts and seas up to 6ft. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be possible into tonight.

Light to moderate offshore winds will develop on tomorrow and
persist into Saturday night. Caution flags or even Small Craft
Advisories may be needed on may again be necessary on Saturday as
occasional gusts up to 25kt will be possible. Light onshore
returns on Sunday. A cold front is expected to move through the
area on Monday bringing showers/storms. Moderate to strong onshore
winds ahead of the front and then offshore winds after the front
will likely lead to Small Craft Advisories Monday into Monday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into
Tuesday morning next week as the front moves through.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  72  53  74 /  80  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  60  76  56  79 /  60  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  63  75  59  73 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335-355-
     375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Fowler


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