893
FXUS63 KICT 101728
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry weather through Saturday

- Confidence increasing for region wide rain Sunday afternoon and
into the start of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Current satellite shows a weak back door frontal system pushing
into Northeast Kansas.  This front will come through dry and will
only serve to bring a re-enforcing shot of dry air.  This will keep
the pleasant weather over the region for Friday and Saturday. Air
temperatures behind the front will not change much but only keep
them from climbing into the upper 80s.  As such, expect generally
light winds and mild temperatures for this time of year.

Saturday evening, the winds will be turning of the south and will
allow some moisture transport to return to the region.  The quality
of this moisture will not be that great initially as the Gulf of
Mexico will not quite be open.  It will take some time for moisture
quality to improve.  By Sunday, this moisture will improve as the
next weather system encroaches on the region.  Orientation of this
system strongly indicates that severe weather will not be likely. In
fact, the system has a more "winter" type look to it with the main
polar front jet much further to the south in Central and Southern
Oklahoma.  This will keep the chances for severe thunderstorm
activity very low if not non-existent.  Isentropic upglide though at
305K and 315K is strong enough to indicate there will plenty of
convergence in the low and mid levels to support light to moderate
rain across much of the region.  An isolated thunderstorm will also
be possible during the afternoon and evening.  The main question at
this time will be timing and location of the main low pressure
track.  This will be key in determining where the best rain chances
will be located.  That said, confidence is increasing (60%-70%) that
nearly all areas of the CWA will receive at least some decent
rainfall.  Amounts are still in question at this time as agreement
be the ensembles is not terribly great with some of them showing an
earlier onset Sunday morning and some showing the rain leaving late
Monday morning.

Tuesday through Friday of next week start off quiet again with
Tuesday looking rather nice.  Wednesday afternoon and into the
Thursday look tricky.  Some models are indicating another round of
showers and thunderstorms.  Orientation of this system indicates
there is at least a chance for some of this thunderstorm activity
could be strong to severe.  Confidence in this solution is not great
(30%) at this time.  Temperatures during this time look to remain
near or just above normal and do not see any extreme temperatures
swings as of yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Few fair weather diurnal cumulus this afternoon otherwise VFR
conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
with light winds generally 10 mph or less.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...KED