National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KJAN 151453 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
953 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Surface analysis had a ridge along the Gulf coast states from the
east. The resulting return flow led to dense fog over our
southeast earlier but the fog has dissipated. The moisture
increase has led to an increase in cloud cover this morning as
well. Ridging aloft was also noted over our region and combined
with the surface ridging, will help temperatures top out warmer
than normal today despite the cloud cover. The current forecast
handles this well. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today and Tonight: Global guidance continues to highlight a slow-
eastward migration of the upper-ridge/surface high which will keep
weather conditions in the area quiet for today and this evening.
Given the slight increase in moisture, a Dense Fog advisory
remains in a effect for areas in the Pine Belt until 9AM this
morning. Afternoon highs today will peak in the low 80s with calm
conditions and increasing moisture as the sfc high remains in
place over the southeast US along with increasing clouds building
from the west later this afternoon. Tonight, weather conditions
will continue to remain quiet as the mean ridge axis continues to
slowly shift further east across the southeast US. Clouds will
continue to build from the west later this evening which will
limit radiational cooling across the forecast area. Because of
this, nighttime temperatures will struggle to cool in the low to
mid 60s. /CR/

Tuesday through next weekend (Sunday)...

Early-midweek (Tuesday-Thursday):

Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist of eastward building mean ridge
at the sfc & aloft, while low-level return flow will begin to pick
up across the area into Tuesday. Strong WAA will be commencing ahead
of an impressive vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low
across the Great Plains & progged to swing into the Mid-West to
Great Lakes by midweek on Wednesday. Upper low will become less
stacked & sfc low is expected to lose some punch as it moves into
the Great Lakes. Regardless, a weak frontal zone is expected to
swing southeast, bringing some light rain & storm chances areas
northwest of the Natchez Trace to Hwy 82 corridor. There is some
strong deep layer flow, so even with some moisture concerns, there
may be enough potential for a few isolated severe storms into
Tuesday evening to overnight into Wednesday. Left the "Marginal" in
the HWO graphics but didn`t trim back as much, to keep some areas
northwest of the Natchez Trace included. With strong low-level jet
of 30-40kts at 850mb & 700mb, respectively, & 4-5mb sfc pressure
gradient, gradient winds remain possible. Kept the ongoing "Limited"
area untouched, even though it may be more refined along the Natchez
Trace corridor but west of I-55 in the northern portions. An
additional shortwave trough/frontal ascent will occur around
Thursday, where some steeper lapse rates/vertical totals around 28-
30 & 30-40kt flow in the 0-3km & 0-6km layers, respectively, will
support some increased convective potential. Can`t rule out some
isolated severe potential with hail being the main concern during
this time. Seasonably warm conditions are expected in the early-
midweek timeframe, with highs some +5 deg. F above normal in the low-
mid 80s & lows some 10-15 deg. F above normal in the mid 60s east of
I-55 to mid-upper 60s to the northwest.

Late week-early next weekend (Friday-Sunday): The region will remain
on the northern fringe of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico to
Caribbean Sea while deep longwave cold core spins over south-central
Canada. Westerly zonal flow will be persistent, with stationary
frontal boundary slowly sagging to the south late week into the
weekend. There could be multi-rounds of rain & storms into late week
& weekend, combined with bulk shear & lapse rates, support some
continued rain & storm potential. Isolated severe storms also can`t
be ruled out during this time. Fcst elements consist of increased
rain & storm chances across the the northern half of the area Friday
before scattered rain & storm chances move in during the weekend.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected Friday with highs in the mid-
upper 80s, before cooling down into late weekend to more seasonable
to seasonably cool in the upper 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace
to low-mid 70s to the southeast by Sunday.Lows will be seasonably
warm both Friday & Saturday mornings in the low-mid 60s before front
moves in through the weekend & lows could be more seasonable in the
mid to upper 50s by Sunday morning. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A few southern TAF sites (HBG/PIB) are currently under LIFR
conditions to start off the TAF period due to low ceilings and
fog development across the Pine Belt. A lesser fog threat could
extend up to MEI dropping the TAF site to IFR with brief LIFR
conditions possible. By 14Z Monday, any fog/low stratus will mix
out due to daytime heating. Elsewhere, MVFR/IFR conditions will
extend northward through western portions of the area through the
morning hours as clouds begin to build from the west. Later in the
afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail across central Mississippi
as ceilings start to improve. Heading into the late evening,
MVFR/IFR conditions will occur across southern TAF sites as
ceilings start to drop around 06Z Tuesday. Amendments may be
necessary later in the evening as conditions worsen. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  64  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      84  60  84  65 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     83  65  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   84  61  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       82  65  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    80  67  82  70 /   0  10  10  30
Greenwood     82  66  82  68 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/CR