758
FXUS62 KJAX 050648
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
248 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...NEAR RECORD HEAT BUILDING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current satellite imagery indicates gradually dispersing leftover
cloud cover from last evening`s convection. Once this cloud cover
erodes and shifts east, areas of fog area likely to develop
across interior regions of southeast GA, generally northwestward
from Waycross. This region will be closely monitored for a Dense
Fog headlines through the morning.

Stagnant low level ridging remains dominant today with very light
southerly flow. Strong daytime heating will promote sea breezes
from both coasts to march inland this afternoon. Diurnal
instability should support scattered showers and thunderstorms
along each respective sea breeze front through the afternoon
hours. Increasing coverage likely along the I-75 corridor during
the early evening as sea breezes collide. The overall threat for
significant convection is fairly low given marginal lapse rates
aloft and unimpressive flow throughout the column. The primary
impact today will be the potential for localized, most likely
nuisance, flooding from slow and chaotic storm motions along the
sea breeze merger. HREF guidance does indicate pockets of 2-3"
amounts sprinkled along a line from Ocala FL northward to Folkston
GA.

Tonight, convection will wane after sunset and fizzle out
completely before midnight with associated debris clouds slowly
fading afterward. This will set the stage for another night of
patchy, and potentially areas, of inland fog again Sunday night
and early Monday morning.

Temps will rise quickly under mostly sunny conditions this
morning, reaching the upper 80s across the area today. Little
change in the dewpoints, keeping lows generally in the mid/upper
60s once again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

A weak shortwave will pass over the region on Monday leading to
increased chances for showers and storms for the beginning of the
week with convection becoming more inhibited by Tuesday as high
pressure ridging increases over the forecast area. Storm
developments will be more numerous along the diurnal sea breeze
boundaries and along areas of convergence. Temperatures will
experience a warming trend next week with max temps rising into
the lower 90s by Tuesday with overnight low temperatures dropping
down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and
lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Predominantly dry weather through the rest of the week as high
pressure ridging strengthens over the region. Potential for
convection will increase by the end of the week ahead of an
approaching cold front pressing in from out of the west.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s as the week progresses
with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels before the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites except at inland
airfields, particularly in southeast GA where MVFR to IFR vsby
conditions may develop by daybreak. Sea breeze will activate
showers near the coast as early as 16z and progress inland with
TSRA building with interactions along the St Johns river breeze.
Thunder impacts with IFR degradation and gusty outflow winds are
possible at KJAX/KVQQ between 18z-22z and similarly at KGNV but
vicinity storms may continue through 00z. Anticipate convection to
wane during the evening hours Sunday with prevailing VFR
conditions and winds at or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters
through Monday allowing afternoon sea breeze development each
day. As high pressure repositions further south Tuesday, winds
trend southerly and then turn offshore toward as the ridge axis
slides farther south toward the end of the upcoming week. Offshore
winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday
night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Low risk at area beaches today with surf around 1-2
feet. Risk will increase to Moderate as surf grows to about 2-3
feet on Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  67  88  67 /  30  20  70  30
SSI  83  70  83  69 /  20  10  40  30
JAX  87  67  88  67 /  30  10  50  20
SGJ  85  69  86  69 /  20  10  40  20
GNV  88  65  88  65 /  60  30  60  10
OCF  89  67  89  67 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$