Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
172 FXUS62 KKEY 131846 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 CIMSS total precipitable water product is highlighting broad, anticyclonic flow extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward to South Florida. Meanwhile, surface analysis places an area of high pressure just offshore of the Virginia Tidewater area, with a weak frontal boundary draped over the Gulf coast. Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain. Temperatures are in the upper 80s, but combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are hovering near 100F at most communities. As the surface high continues to slide into the western North Atlantic overnight, southeasterly breezes will briefly freshen overnight through Tuesday morning. The frontal boundary will stall north of the Florida Keys for much of the week, with mean ridging continuing to dominant the sensible weather locally. Temperatures will remain very warm, with highs likely approaching the lower 90s by the end of the week. With little in the way for synoptic forcing for ascent and little in the way of moisture depicted in forecast soundings, expecting mainly dry conditions to continue through the end of the work week. The exception to this may be Wednesday night, when a low- level moisture undulation may bring a slightly better chance of measurable rainfall. Ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance suggests by next weekend, the ridge will gradually break down, with a potentially troughy pattern setting up over the Southeast. This pattern tends to support mesoscale convective development, including possible afternoon cumulus cloud line deveopment along the island chain. Given this scenario, have nudged rain chances up to just above climatology (around 20%) for this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 An area of high pressure will slide over the western North Atlantic, resulting in generally gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes through Saturday. A brief bout of moderate to fresh breezes is also expected tonight through Tuesday morning. Small Craft Should Exericse Caution headlines are posted for all Florida Keys marine zones. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions continue with southeasterly near-surface winds of 10 to 15 kts. Occasional gusts near 20 kts are possible during the overnight hours, but are not expected to be frequent or persistent. && .CLIMATE... VFR conditions continue with southeasterly near-surface winds of 10 to 15 kts. Occasional gusts near 20 kts are possible during the overnight hours, but are not expected to be frequent or persistent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 91 81 92 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 81 91 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest