428
FXUS64 KLCH 172330
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal partly to mostly
cloudy skies and light showers streaming in from the southeast
this afternoon. This activity will likely continue into the
evening hours, but should remain below severe limits. An
approaching shortwave, in combination with high moisture content
and instability, will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning for areas
along and south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. The latest suite of
high res guidance indicates that the onset of any convective
development is likely to be after 2-3AM for areas along and south
of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line, and is expected to move east
to southeast into early Saturday morning. Forecast model
soundings support the potential for damaging wind gusts and large
hail with any severe thunderstorms.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy
rain may also bring a threat for flash flooding for areas
along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line. HREF
guidance indicates additional amounts of 1-2 inches will be
possible through early Saturday. With the highest rainfall
amounts expected to fall further south of the Flood Watch
configuration, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this
evening. While there still may be minor issues with recent
rainfall, expect fairly light rainfall amounts through this
evening.

Otherwise, the combination of light winds and high moisture
content may result in the development of patchy fog tonight.
Expect cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 60s region wide
tonight. Ridging is expected to build over the region heading
into the weekend, which will bring an end to the unsettled weather
pattern. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with low
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The work week will feature above normal temperatures with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s as high pressure and ridging prevail.
In combination with the humidity, afternoon heat index values
will rise into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Unsettled
weather may return toward the end of the week as an upper level
disturbance approaches, but most precipitation chances are
expected to remain further north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Rather stable conditions at the moment across the forecast area
with mainly VFR ceilings and just some occasional light rain. The
question for tonight is the development of any convective activity
and if it will organize into a MCS. For now, it looks like any
organized activity will develop late tonight and southeast of
Lafayette to Cameron line. Therefore, only KLFT and KARA will have
the mention of storms between 1808z/1812z.

Otherwise, remainder of the terminals will see a redevelopment of
low clouds and patchy fog with MVFR to IFR conditions.

On Saturday, more stable conditions will filter with drier air
that will allow for VFR conditions after 18/15z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across the coastal waters late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds will result
in gradually falling seas late this weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  87  67  89 /  30  10   0   0
LCH  68  86  70  89 /  40  10   0   0
LFT  70  86  71  91 /  60  10   0   0
BPT  67  88  70  91 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...07