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000
FXUS64 KLIX 142337
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure remains anchored near Bermuda. Southerly return
flow around the high has yielded a notable increase in humidity
with dewpoints around 10-15F higher than this time yesterday.
The breezy southerly winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon will
gradually weaken as daytime mixing wanes after sunset.
Temperatures will drop quickly this evening once this occurs.
There is a potential for radiational fog to develop toward
daybreak across inland areas of southern MS (north of I-12) and
the SE LA (north of I-12). There is a concern for the fog to
become dense across these northern and eastern areas, but there
may be enough of a pressure gradient to prevent winds from
decoupling across the region, except for the most sheltered
locales. This may limit coverage/density of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The region will be situated in fast zonal flow in between a ridge
over the SW Gulf of Mexico and longwave trough over the northern
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored over the
southwestern Atlantic. A gradual increase in temperatures and
humidity is forecast to continue through much of the work week owing
the persistent southerly return flow around the high. There wasn`t
much of a need to stray away from the NBM forecast with such low
spread in the NBM ensembles through Friday. However, a target of
opportunity was identified for Thursday and Friday with the
potential to see our first 90F day of the year. Kept temperatures
just below the NBM forecast by blending it with the 25th percentile
due to the potential for cloud cover. Mid and high clouds look
likely with several shortwave disturbances that are embedded within
the fast zonal flow aloft moving across the area.

The next precipitation chances look to be this weekend. Models have
trended slower with the system next weekend so the better chance for
showers and storms appear to be Sunday instead of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Primary concern continues to be the prospect of IFR or lower
ceilings and visibilities developing as strong radiational cooling
allows for a decent inversion to form after 10z. MVFR
visibilities and IFR ceilings as low as 300 feet could develop at
MCB around 10z and continue through 13z before improving where the
low level inversion is expected to be strongest. BTR, HDC, and ASD
may also see MVFR ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet develop for
a brief window around 12z tomorrow morning. Outside of this fog
and low ceiling threat between 10z and 13z, VFR conditions will
prevail at all of the terminals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR this afternoon with a S wind 8-12 kt, gusting to just under
20 kt. The south wind will weaken within a few hours following
sunset and generally remain between 4-8 kt through much of the
night. However, stronger radiational cooling across the inland/northern
terminals (e.g., MCB, HDC, BTR) may decouple winds at the surface
and yield patchy fog toward daybreak Monday morning. Restrictions
would likely be MVFR but cannot rule out a brief 1-2 hour period
of IFR, especially at MCB, at or just before 12Z. VFR and S winds
5-10 kt can be expected on Monday.

Outlook (Monday night-Wednesday night)...Forecast model soundings
show a gradual increase in low level through the week owing to
the persistent southerly flow around high pressure that is
anchored to our east. While conditions look to many be VFR, the
potential for MVFR CIGs, including stratus overnight and stratocu
during the morning, increase each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will remain anchored to our east. This setup will
produce an extended period of southerly return flow through the
end of the week. The pressure gradient is expected to strengthen
on Tuesday. The latest guidance highlights two separate areas for
the potential of small craft advisory conditions on Tuesday. The
first area is across the outer coastal waters where the NBM
probabilities of 20 kt or higher sustained winds peak in the 50-70
percent range. The second area is the lakes where probabilities
peak to 100 percent during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  59  85  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  59  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  62  81  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  61  78  65  78 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  57  79  62  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...JK