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000
FXUS64 KLIX 130750
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
250 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Southerly winds should develop by the end of the day today. Even
though some moisture will move back into the area, it won`t be at a
fast pace. Dew pt temps will slowly creep into the 60s by late
Sunday. Winds will also begin to rise to around 10mph by the start
of the week. As temps climb to around 80s and a few degrees higher
over the next several days, the continued relatively dry conditions
along with the light brz will keep ambient conditions feeling very
nice.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

When we get fog, it normally comes in between systems. Looking for
the best chance of fog over the next several days, the time that
comes out is Monday morning. This may be generous since the best
signal is over TX and SWLA which is also very normal in a westerly
flow regime.

The next frontal system moves into east TX and rapidly
stalls as the next stronger frontal system is developing in the
foothills of the Rockies and begins to draw on the first front over
Texas. This first front will be supported by the upper low off the
Cali coast. This low will eventually buckle the subtropical jet and
couple with it. As the low opens up and moves NE, the winds go
parallel to the sfc cold front through the column. This is what will
cause the front to stall(basically no more forcing). But the sh/ts
that develop from this front will continue to move eastward away
from the front but as it approaches our area, there will be no sfc
support and weakening upper level support. This should cause the
sh/ts to begin weakening as well especially along the southern
portion of this line. So, even if there are a few sh/ts that make it
here by Tue or Wed, it won`t be much. Another strong cold front is
advertised to move into the area by the end of next week, but the
timing on all global suites continues to be extremely different.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds will ease back into the 5-10kt and even light and variable
today with return flow around 10kt beginning late today into Sunday.
These winds will remain this way through the week possibly getting
up to 15-20kt from mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  52  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  84  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  55  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE