Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 160205
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1005 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Drier and less active weather for the weekend.

* Unseasonably cold for the start of the week with freezing
  temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday morning.

* Above normal temperatures and precipitation chances return for the
  end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Forecast is in good shape overall. Still looks good for at least
patchy fog overnight into early Saturday morning...possibly areas of
fog especially across north central Kentucky and the Blue Grass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Cold front currently bisects the Common Wealth from the northeast
back to the southwest. Along the boundary, radar and observations
show light rain and drizzle with cooler temperatures in the low/mid
50s to the north and mid/upper 60s to around 70 across the south
into the Lake Cumberland Region. Front will progress slowly
southward through the afternoon and with the warmer temperatures to
the south, even with the cloud cover, we are seeing 250-500 J/kg of
CAPE. Along with the forcing associated with the cold front, a few
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible where we have the
warmer temperatures. Only expect some gusty winds and possibly small
hail but nothing severe.

Front will push south and exit Kentucky later this evening taking
the clouds and any associated precipitation with it. Winds will turn
light and when you factor in the wet ground and colder air advecting
in over the area, we could see some patchy fog develop overnight,
especially in areas that remained warm during most of the day. Lows
will range from the mid/upper 30s into southern IN with upper 30s to
low 40s across central KY.

We start the weekend dry as a weak sfc ridge associated with high
pressure over the central CONUS works across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Winds will shift back out of the south-southwest as a sfc
low associated with a deepening upper trough pushes into the Great
Lakes and northeast US. Temperatures will remain above normal in the
low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Amplified pattern associated with a Rex block across the western
CONUS will deepen a trough across the eastern US. A series of
shortwaves embedded in the north/south flow will help to deepen the
trough allowing for drier, colder and more stable air to advect in
over the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley for the start of the week.

The first shortwave will drop out of the Upper Midwest and into the
Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Other than a few clouds, we
will remain dry but temperatures will be cooler to end the weekend
by 10-15 degrees with highs in the 50s. A second stronger and deeper
trough axis will push into the region on Monday. Much colder air
will advect into the area with lows falling to near or below
freezing across the whole are by Monday morning and afternoon highs
15-20 degrees below normal for mid March as afternoon highs only
warm into the low 40s. As the trough axis swings through, we could
see an area of wintry mix (rain/snow) across mainly the Bluegrass
and gusty and blustery northwest winds. The main impact from all
this remains the very cold and hard freeze temperatures expected
Monday night into Tuesday morning with lows into the mid 20s across
all of our CWA. Any early blooming vegetation would be at risk from
this hard freeze. We remain dry through mid week despite a weak
clipper system working in from the Northern Plains late Tues into
Wed. Temperatures will also start to warm back up into the 50s on
Tuesday and 60s by Wednesday.

By the end of the week our precipitation chances start to increase
and we continue with above normal temperatures. Closed cut-off low
over the Desert Southwest for most of the week will eventually eject
eastward and open up as a trough across the central US and into the
Ohio Valley. For now went ahead and kept what the NBM had for
Thursday and Friday and will fine tune the details as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low clouds will clear out from north to south during the first few
hours of the period. With light winds and just some high clouds
leftover for the overnight, along with damp ground from earlier rain
and drizzle, patchy fog is expected to develop late. After any
morning fog burns off, Saturday will be a pleasant day with partly
cloudy skies ahead of a cold front sweeping in from the northwest.
WSW winds in the tightening pressure gradient ahead of this front
will gust to around 15-20kt in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...13


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