Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLOT 250810
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
310 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

Through Sunday night...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region at times
throughout the weekend with a large north to south temperature
contrast expected thanks to a frontal boundary draped over the
area.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low
centered over central Oklahoma with moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico streaming northward towards the Great Lakes region. Over
northern Illinois, a surface cold front stretches from near BMI
east-northeast to RZL. Temperatures north of the front have
fallen into the 30s and 40s, while to the south, temperatures have
stayed in the upper 50s and 60s overnight. The front has surged
much farther south than was originally anticipated, and
unfortunately models do not have good agreement on how much if any
the front will move through the day today. The GFS lifts the
front back to near the I-88 corridor by mid to late this
afternoon, while the NAM shows little northward progression
through the day. This results in lower than average confidence in
temperatures through the day especially across the Chicago Metro
area which will likely see a 15-20 degree temp difference from
north to south. For now, leaning towards the NAM which verified
better on frontal position yesterday and has decent agreement with
the ECMWF but has a better handle on temps near the lake.

Meanwhile, the upper low over OK is progged to lift to central MO
by mid afternoon and a corridor of more tightly packed pressure
contours on the 295-305K isentropic surfaces lifts across the
region. This should lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage roughly 9-12Z across the south lifting towards the WI
state line by 18-21Z. Afterwards, there may be a lull in activity
or at least lower coverage in precipitation as the forcing becomes
more nebulous. Would expect to see at least some continued spotty
activity as broad ascent associated with a persistent diffluent
region aloft and continuing mid level height falls, along with low
amplitude vort maxima emanating from the upper low move into the
very moist albeit weakly unstable environment that will persist
throughout the day. Overall thunderstorm threat is not too
terribly impressive due to weak mid level lapse rates, but
guidance continues to hint at weak MUCAPE <100 J/kg that could
result in a couple isolated thunderstorms given the ample forcing.

On Sunday, upper low is expected to lift to Central Illinois by
midday then shift to northwest Indiana Sunday evening. Showers and
possibly a couple thunderstorms will continue as the upper low
traverses the area, but anticipate precipitation to begin winding
down from the west through the afternoon as the 500mb trough axis
pass through and eventually mid and upper level height
rises/modest ridging builds in during the evening. Still a little
uncertainty in surface front placement, but models in a little
better agreement with the front lifting to or close to the WI
state line through the day Monday which should allow the upper 50s
and low 60s to overspread the CWA.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

Monday through Saturday...

Active weather is expected to continue through the upcoming week
and into next weekend as a series of lows push across the
Midwest and Great Lakes region. Early part of the day Monday
should be dry and mild, but precip chances increase from the
south later in the day as low pressure lifts from southern
Missouri into Indiana late Monday. Sprawling area of high pressure
will build across the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest
Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in a couple days of dry weather.
Persistent north to northeast flow this time frame will result in
onshore flow and cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan. Local
climatology indicates that temperatures struggle to reach the mid
40s for downtown Chicago on late March days with persistent
onshore flow. Bumped down temperatures several degrees below
guidance near the lake...into the mid 40s but may still be too
warm. Farther inland, still anticipate temperatures well into the
50s. Another low will traverse the region Thursday into Friday but
there is considerable spread among the various models and their
ensembles. GFS races a low to the mid Atlantic Coast by Friday
morning while the GEM and ECMWF deepen the low and lift it across
Iowa and Missouri, respectively, Friday morning. Will maintain
chance PoPs late in the week, but confidence in any details is
very low at this point.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Main concerns are northeast winds/gusts today, IFR/LIFR ceilings,
periodic showers/drizzle which will likely provide reduced vis.

Ceilings remain VFR for DPA/ORD/MDW at this time, while RFD and
GYY observing low end MVFR and IFR ceilings. Do think the sites
seeing VFR ceilings will soon see this change, with IFR ceilings
likely moving in place over the next 1-2 hours. These lower
ceilings and even LIFR ceilings will then persist for much of the
day. There may be some slight improvement later this afternoon but
if this were to occur, it will be short lived with ceilings then
expected to fall once again. Light showers primarily affecting
RFD at this time but expect precip shield to the south to shift
north across the terminals later this morning and then likely
remain in place for much of the day. Could be a lull in the
activity by mid day, but precip should then fill back in by
early/mid afternoon with even a low chance for thunder.

Rodriguez

&&

.MARINE...
351 PM CDT

A cold front is pushing down the lake this afternoon, and should
reach the southern tip of the lake early this evening and then go
stationary just south of the lake tonight as low pressure slowly
moves across the southern plains to the middle Mississippi Valley.
Strong southwest winds will quickly shift to nely-nly following
the fropa, with speeds of 25-30 kt. There is a chance for a few
gale force gusts, especially Saturday night when the gradient over
the lake will be strongest, but confidence is too low to include
mention of gales in the forecast at this time. The Small Craft
Advisory currently in place should be able to be dropped for the
Indiana nearshore waters on time this evening, but have extended
it for the IL nearshore waters into Sunday afternoon as an
extended fetch of brisk east winds should keep waves in the 3 to 6
ft range into Sunday afternoon. The low is expected to slow down
and weaken Sunday night as it eventually moves across the lake.
There should then be a break in the stronger winds for Sunday
night into early next weak as the low slowly lifts through the
Great Lakes region and weak high pressure builds over the upper
Mississippi Valley. Winds should remain comparatively light
through early next week and another weak low tracks across the
Ohio Valley and high pressure gradually builds across the western
Great Lakes region.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 5 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.