Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 021350
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
839 AM CDT

QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WEBCAMS AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE CLOUD DECK IS NOT SUPER
THICK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AFTER SOME INITIAL
OVERTURNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD
DECK.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CDT

THROUGH FRIDAY...

ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID SUMMER WEATHER TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW AS WELL. NOAA SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS FAIRLY HEAVY SMOKE
PLUME ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SMOKE INTO THE AREA SUSPECT SUNSHINE WILL BE
FILTERED BY SMOKE TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
PLAN TO HANDLE THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED SUNSHINE WITH HAZE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
248 AM CDT

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES HAVING FAR LESS INFLUENCE BOTH SPATIALLY AND
IN MAGNITUDE ON TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR...THOUGH AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMOKE COULD OBSCURE
SUN SOME...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY SUSPECT
SMOKE WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH MONDAY NIGHT NOW MORE
FAVORED...THOUGH SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD
EVEN SUGGEST MORE OF A TUESDAY EVENT WITH REGION SQUEAKING OUT
ANOTHER DRY/WARM DAY ON MONDAY.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

* NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT STARTING MID MORNING.

MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW AND PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID MORNING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
ABOVE 10 KT AS WE BEGIN TO MIX. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE A HAIR LIGHTER AS THE RIDGE AXIS
GETS CLOSER.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM IN IFR/MVFR END TIME.

* HIGH IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.

MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY. VFR. LGT VRB WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY. VFR. SW WINDS TURNING E.
SUNDAY...DRY. VFR. SE WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. NW WINDS TURNING NE.
WEDNESDAY...DRY. VFR. NE WINDS.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
321 AM CDT

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH A MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FAR NORTH LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
     FRIDAY.

IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
     FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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