Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 051914
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
214 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

214 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...HIGHS AROUND 80 MAYBE LOWER
80S STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE IL COUNTIES...70S IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND
THIS MAY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...EVEN ALONG THE IL
SHORE SO NOW HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO
THE SHORELINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE APPEARS TO DIMINISH
SOME DURING THE MORNING BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BY THIS TIME LIKELY BE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION BUT BEST
THUNDER CHANCES MAY ALSO END UP BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REMAIN DIFFICULT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND WITH LESS PRECIP EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS MAY WARM FASTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
THEN TEMPS COULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AT LEAST
NEAR THE LAKE. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INLAND BUT BY EVENING...COOLER AIR
FLOWING IN OFF THE LAKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

214 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL IL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS EVEN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE DRY BUT
WITH THIS FRONT NEARBY...MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS MAY SLOW THE OVERALL
NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS THE LOW WEAKENING AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO COOL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN HARD TO DISSEMINATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ITSELF IN TORD/TMDW DATA IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FIELD AND LOOKS LIKE IT IS PROPOGATING INLAND NOW AT
LEAST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SUCH THAT THE FLOPPING OF WINDS
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NW AND NE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT OVER FOR ORD.
IT IS NOT CLEAR IN THE RADAR FIELD FOR MDW AND IN OBSERVATIONS
WITH THE CRIB DOWNTOWN STILL HOLDING A NW WIND.

BEYOND THE LAKE BREEZE CONCERN LIMITED CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WITH REGARDS TO LAKE
BREEZE TOMORROW...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS A BIT
STRONGER TO SUGGEST A LAKE BREEZE WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKEFRONT...BUT ONE MAY STILL DEVELOP THERE GIVEN THE STRONG
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL EXPECTED BETWEEN LAND/LAKE. AT THIS
POINT GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST IT GETTING TO ORD/MDW.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
356 AM CDT

LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT EARLY
THIS MORNING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH MID
MORNING FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKE...
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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