Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 202359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
659 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

235 PM CDT

Through Friday...

Concerns for tonight are potential frost in north Central Illinois and
lake effect showers/possible storms in northwest Indiana.

Quite a different day compared to yesterday with grey skies, brisk
north winds, and temperatures holding in the 50s area wide. A mid
level trough and elevated frontal zone continue to drive a few
light rain showers but these should diminish this evening as the
trough axis shifts east. Lake effect rain showers already made an
appearance across northwest Indiana this afternoon though they
have been shallow and fairly short lived.

High pressure across the plains will inch eastward tonight, and should
provide for some clearing skies from the west as the night
progresses. Cold advection on northwest flow will allow
temperatures to again dip to the mid 30s across north central
Illinois. We do maintain a bit of a wind component tonight as the
high remains to our west making it not an ideal setup for frost,
but forecast soundings do show some decoupling late tonight and
therefore have matched with the neighboring offices and issued a
Frost advisory for these areas. More cloud cover east and
continued winds hold temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Meanwhile, as this colder air filters south, lake effect already
ongoing across the U.P. of Michigan should become more pronounced
across the lake and northwest Indiana as the evening continues. We
may start to see some development this evening, with better
thermodyanamic parameters and lake convergence setting up
overnight into early Friday. With lake induced equilibrium levels
up at 25000 feet some of these showers could be somewhat robust
and produce thunder, and the lake convergence signal complements
these parameters bringing a potential waterspout concern.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the high will
continue east Friday and allow the convergence axis to shift into
Porter and eventually east of the area sometime Friday afternoon.
Areas away from NW Indy will have largely clear or clearing skies
with modest NW winds. Highs again top out in the lower to mid 50s
but it may look and feel a little nicer with a slightly weaker
wind and some sunshine.




Friday night through Thursday...

216 pm...Forecast concerns include frost potential Friday night/
Saturday morning and an unsettled pattern for the middle of next

A ridge of high pressure will be moving across the area Friday
night into Saturday morning. This will allow for light/calm winds
with temps likely to tank during Friday evening. However...there
will be some weak warm air advection aloft overnight as well as
the potential for some cloud cover. How much these affect frost
formation is uncertain but as long as clouds do not become
overcast...expect at least patchy frost over much of the area with
temps in the mid/upper 30s much of the area. Possible another frost
advisory may be needed.

As the high departs Saturday...winds will turn to the southwest
and temps will begin to moderate reaching into the lower 60s
Saturday. Temps could potentially warm into the upper 60s to lower
70s on Sunday on breezy west/southwest winds. Low pressure will
move across the northern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. Still some timing differences regarding when a trailing
cold front will arrive which may affect high temps. This front
pushes southeast of the area Sunday night with high temps back
into the lower 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Another low will move across the region Wednesday/Wednesday night
next week with the gfs/ecmwf in better agreement today. Possible
precip may develop along a warm front Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night with the location of that warm front likely
nearby...possibly southern WI. As the low approaches Wednesday...
winds may become breezy/gusty with a period of showers/
thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. cms


For the 00Z TAFs...

MVFR cigs have largely improved to vfr, with the exception of GYY
as the large scale upper trough moves to the east and a drier air
mass moves in from the west. With a favorable lake effect setup in
place for nwrn IN, GYY continues to have mvfr cigs with gusty
nnwly winds and cooler air over relatively warm water. The main
concern through the early evening will be gusty winds of 18-20 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt at GYY with flow off of the lake. A
convergence zone down the spine of Lake Michigan will set up over
the lake tonight which will allow wind direction to back from nly
to NW overnight and into Friday. The pattern will be favorable
for lake effect rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms
across the lake and possibly moving into nwrn Indiana, depending
on where the convergence axis sets up. Some shra should impact
GYY overnight. The axis of lake effect rain showers will shift
east of the area Saturday with some continued breezy nwly winds,
but cloud cover should continue to diminish.



320 pm...Low pressure over the mid Atlantic will move northeast
to New England through Saturday as it deepens. Strong high
pressure over the plains will move southeast to the Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. A strong gradient will persist across the lake
tonight and slowly weaken Friday into Friday night as a weaker
ridge moves across the lake by Saturday. Low pressure will move
from the northern plains Saturday night to the northern lakes
region Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. A trailing cold front
will move south across the lake Sunday night as strong high
pressure builds across the northern plains. Northerly winds are
expected to increase to 30 kts Sunday night into Monday morning
but should diminish fairly quickly Monday as the high moves across
the lake. Another low pressure is expected to move from the
central plains Tuesday to the Great Lakes region Wednesday night
or Thursday. cms


IL...Frost Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012...2 AM Friday TO 8 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM Saturday.




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