Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
FXUS63 KLOT 252329
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
629 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
201 PM CDT
High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather through
Tuesday. Calm to light/variable winds will be in place tonight
allowing for radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower 60s
northwest to the mid 60s south, with around 70 in the immediate
Chicago metro. Southern areas will likely see a slower cool down
as dewpoints have hung on in the lower 70s, but should fall into
the mid 60s tonight. With the light flow, patchy fog may develop
but forecast soundings suggest that moisture will be very shallow.
Areas that received the most rainfall outside of the immediate
metro area are probably most favored and it may be that any fog
that develops is rather shallow.
The center of the high shifts east tomorrow but winds will
continue to be light. This will support a lake influence setting
up once again which will keep lakeshore areas around 80 for highs
while the rest of the area sees highs in the mid/upper 80s once
305 PM CDT
Tuesday night through Monday...
High pressure over the area Tuesday night will very gradually
weaken on Wednesday and Wednesday Night with any forcing for
precipitation in the Midwest being to our north and south. The
latter forcing is a shearing/weakening upper low presently located
in the northern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in model
solutions as to what degree this interacts with the northern
stream trough forcing. Just how far north the channel of higher
theta-e air returns will depend on this. So while a chance for
showers and thunderstorms over a 48 hour window or so at this
time, overall there still is not a signal for high impact weather.
Obviously with the moist air mass to our south, that could
Despite the difference in model solutions for Thursday-Friday,
there appears to be a quieter and drier weekend setting up than
last with northwest flow aloft and north-northeast flow in the
low-levels. Depending on the strength of this low-level flow,
that could bring a rip current threat to area beaches later
For the 00Z TAFs...
Surface high pressure will spread across the region tonight and
Tuesday, providing a period of quiet aviation weather. Lake breeze
pushed through ORD/MDW this afternoon producing east winds which
will diminish quickly this evening, with light/variable conditions
expected overnight into Tuesday. Very weak pressure gradient in
the vicinity of the surface ridge Tuesday will again support lake
breeze development, likely a little earlier than occurred today.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period.
Some concern the some shallow, patchy ground fog will develop
outside the core of the Chicago metro, though forecast soundings
depict a fairly dry column right down to the surface. Backed off
on the MVFR vis at RFD/GYY and DPA and mentioned just patchy
ground fog (MIFG). ORD/MDW should remain VFR.
255 PM CDT
Little in the way of concern over Lake Michigan through the first
half of this week with high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes
region. A cool front inches its way down the lake Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along this
front and move over the southern part of the lake late in the
week. There is uncertainty on how strong of a low this will be,
but it appears possible for 30 kt gusts sometime behind this
during the Friday/Saturday period and Small Craft Advisory
conditions in the Illinois and Indiana nearshore.
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