Flood Potential Outlook
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FGUS73 KLOT 241530
ESFLOT
ILC007-011-031-037-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-INC073-089-111-127-251500-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:HART DITCH
DYER                12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON            10.0   15.0   16.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER             12.0   14.0   17.0 :  35   33   21   15    7    7
SOUTH HOLLAND       16.5   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE        10.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
KOUTS               11.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
SHELBY               9.0   11.0   12.5 :  14   18    7    9   <5    6
MOMENCE              5.0    6.5    9.0 :   9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER          12.0   14.0   15.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
FORESMAN            18.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IROQUOIS            18.0   24.0   25.0 :  12    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD             18.0   22.0   26.0 :   9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE            16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON           6.5    8.0   10.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL              7.0    9.0   10.0 :  25   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
GURNEE               7.0    9.0   11.0 :  12    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LINCOLNSHIRE        12.5   14.0   15.5 :  12    6    6   <5   <5   <5
DES PLAINES          5.0    8.0    9.0 :  15   10    6   <5    6   <5
RIVERSIDE            7.0    8.0    9.0 :  15   15   14    9    9    9
LEMONT              10.0   11.0   12.0 :  23   15   14   10   10   10
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE         11.5   14.5   17.5 :  15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK         19.5   21.0   23.0 :  34   29   17   13    7    7
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD            6.5    8.0   10.0 :  12   12    6   <5   <5   <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY           12.0   14.0   17.0 :   6    7    6   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT    9.5   10.5   12.0 :  17   13   12   12   12    6
MONTGOMERY          13.0   14.0   15.0 :  18   15    9    7    7    6
DAYTON              12.0   14.0   24.0 :  18   13   14    7   <5   <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC             14.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LEONORE             16.0   21.0   26.0 :  14   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND            12.0   14.0   15.5 :  14   12    7    9   <5   <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON             10.0   11.0   14.0 :  14   10    7   10   <5   <5
LATHAM PARK         10.0   11.0   14.0 :   7   10   <5    6   <5   <5
ROCKFORD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE            9.0   10.0   12.0 :  10    6    7   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB             10.0   11.0   12.5 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE          12.0   18.0   22.0 :  12    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON               13.0   14.0   16.0 :  10    7    9   <5    6   <5
DIXON               16.0   18.0   20.0 :   7   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV    7.0    7.5    8.0 :  12    7    6   <5   <5   <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS              16.0   18.0   22.0 :  17    9    9    9   <5   <5
OTTAWA             463.0  466.0  469.0 :  15    9    7   <5   <5   <5
LA SALLE            20.0   27.0   31.0 :  29   18    7    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER                  2.7    2.9    3.5    4.7    6.4    7.9   15.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON              3.4    3.5    4.0    5.7    8.8    9.5   12.1
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER               7.7    8.4    9.2   10.4   13.3   15.8   18.3
SOUTH HOLLAND         7.2    7.5    8.4   10.5   12.9   13.5   15.4
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE          3.8    4.0    4.8    6.3    7.1    9.2   10.3
KOUTS                 4.7    4.9    5.8    7.2    8.2   10.3   11.5
SHELBY                5.2    5.7    6.2    7.4    8.4   10.9   13.2
MOMENCE               1.9    2.1    2.4    3.1    3.8    5.0    6.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER            4.1    5.1    6.3    7.7    9.7   11.7   14.0
FORESMAN              6.5    7.7    9.6   11.7   13.9   16.5   17.2
IROQUOIS              6.2    7.3    8.7   11.6   14.4   19.5   23.0
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD               5.7    6.2    6.9    8.2   10.8   18.0   19.3
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE              3.8    4.1    4.8    6.1    8.5   13.0   16.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON            1.6    1.7    1.9    2.5    3.8    5.9    7.1
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL               2.9    3.9    4.6    5.9    7.1    8.2    9.3
GURNEE                1.9    2.1    2.4    3.4    4.2    7.7    9.2
LINCOLNSHIRE          6.5    6.6    7.1    8.0    9.1   12.8   14.4
RIVERSIDE             2.9    3.2    4.0    5.0    6.4    9.1   11.5
LEMONT                6.3    6.7    7.5    8.4   10.0   12.9   15.4
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE           8.4    8.7    9.1   10.0   10.6   12.5   14.0
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK          15.9   16.4   17.4   18.8   20.1   21.9   24.2
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD             3.1    3.3    3.9    4.8    5.7    7.3    9.6
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY             2.4    2.4    2.5    4.9    8.9   11.6   14.4
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT     5.7    6.0    6.3    7.4    8.8   12.5   14.7
MONTGOMERY           11.6   11.7   11.8   12.3   12.9   14.1   15.4
DAYTON                6.5    6.7    7.2    8.6   10.6   14.7   20.4
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC               3.7    3.7    4.5    5.8    7.9   11.9   13.5
LEONORE               4.5    4.5    6.4    8.8   12.6   18.5   21.1
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND              6.0    6.0    6.7    8.0   10.0   13.5   16.2
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    7.5   10.5   14.2
LATHAM PARK           5.4    5.4    5.4    5.5    7.5    9.8   13.4
ROCKFORD              3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.5    4.5    6.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE             1.8    2.0    2.6    3.8    5.6    9.2   11.9
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB               3.2    3.3    3.9    5.2    6.7    7.9   11.3
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE            6.3    6.4    6.8    8.4   10.3   12.7   19.7
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON                 7.1    7.1    7.1    7.8    9.9   14.0   17.0
DIXON                 9.1    9.1    9.1    9.4   11.5   15.3   19.3
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV     3.4    3.7    4.1    4.6    5.6    7.3    8.5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS                5.6    5.8    6.0    8.9   13.9   18.0   21.3
OTTAWA              458.7  458.7  458.9  459.3  461.8  465.6  471.0
LA SALLE             11.9   12.2   12.7   15.6   22.5   25.5   31.0

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER                  2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON              2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER               5.2    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7
SOUTH HOLLAND         5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE          3.3    3.3    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8
KOUTS                 4.3    4.2    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7
SHELBY                4.8    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1
MOMENCE               1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER            3.8    3.7    3.5    3.3    3.1    3.1    3.0
FORESMAN              5.6    5.4    5.0    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3
IROQUOIS              5.2    5.0    4.6    4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD               1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE              3.1    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON            1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL               2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3
GURNEE                1.7    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1
LINCOLNSHIRE          6.3    6.1    5.9    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6
RIVERSIDE             2.1    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5
LEMONT                5.5    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE           7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK          14.5   14.5   14.4   14.3   14.3   14.3   14.2
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD             2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY             1.9    1.7    1.2    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT     5.1    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2
MONTGOMERY           11.4   11.3   11.2   11.2   11.1   11.1   11.1
DAYTON                6.0    5.7    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.1
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC               3.2    3.2    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8
LEONORE               4.0    3.9    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND              5.1    4.7    4.3    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.7
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON               3.9    3.2    2.9    2.8    2.6    2.6    2.5
LATHAM PARK           4.6    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.6    3.6
ROCKFORD              2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE             1.7    1.6    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB               3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE            6.0    5.9    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.4
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON                 6.2    5.5    5.2    5.1    4.9    4.9    4.9
DIXON                 8.6    8.3    8.1    8.1    7.9    7.9    7.9
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV     1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
OTTAWA              458.5  458.5  458.5  458.5  458.5  458.5  458.5
LA SALLE             11.3   11.0   10.8   10.7   10.7   10.6   10.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THESE MONTHLY OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE THIRD OR
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.

$$










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