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000
FXUS61 KLWX 141822
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
222 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will track to our north tonight, and eventually
drag a cold front southward across the area Monday. This front
will return northward as a warm front during the day Wednesday.
A cold front will move through the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Moisture advection is underway across western areas as evidenced
on various GOES and LEO observational platforms. Some fair wx cu
has popped across northwestern areas where some weak instability
is present, however, LightningCast product does not show any
convective development imminent. Expecting robust convection to
develop across north central PA after 22Z and quickly race
southeastward late this evening. Almost all CAMs, except the Hi-
res FVE, have this convection dissipating as it enters northern
MD around midnight. Kept isolated to low-end scattered PoPs
across northwestern areas this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A lee-side trof will develop ahead of the main frontal zone
dropping south from Pennsylvania. Almost all guidance have
convection developing south of Spotsylvania County into AKQ`s
CWA. SPC DY2 Otlk has a Marginal risk across the Charlottesville
and Fredericksburg areas. Cdfnt/dewpoint discontinuity line will
drop across the area after 00Z Tue. Dry weather is expected Mon
night with some moisture return into our southwest Tuesday
afternoon. Temps will cool down Tuesday after a day in the 80s
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Warm front approaches the area on Wednesday, leading to an
increase in dewpoints across the area into the 50s to low 60s.
Increasing PoPs Wednesday afternoon, especially across the
northern half of the CWA where better forcing and moisture
availability will reside. Could be a few rumbles of thunder but
severe chances have dropped over the last several days with the
lack of instability across the area. Highs will be in the low to
mid 70s for most areas for the afternoon. By Thursday, a cold
front is expected to cross the area, leading to additional
chances for showers and few isolated thunderstorms for the
afternoon. A secondary cold front approaches by Friday, leading
to increasing chances for showers again and even going into the
weekend. Impacts should be pretty tame, with mostly just
appreciable rainfall for the end of the workweek into the
weekend with highs in the 70s for the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Slight chance of showers this evening across the northern
terminals, otherwise VFR. Winds shift from south direction this
afternoon to southwest this evening, then to a NW direction
Monday. Gusts up to 20 kt Monday.

Brief sub-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday as
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may approach the terminals,
especially for the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft winds will continue across the waters through
tonight before diminishing Monday. A Special Marine Warning may
be required Monday afternoon south of Drum Point and Cobb
Island.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed Wednesday into Thursday for
gusts 20 to 25 knots across the waters, especially in the
afternoon hours. Additionally, cannot rule out an SMW Wednesday
afternoon/evening as a few thunderstorms could approach the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...LFR/ADM
MARINE...LFR/ADM
FIRE WEATHER...