Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261144
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Current surface observations show the weak cold front has nosed into
the Permian Basin, bringing light northeasterly winds and a notable
chill in the air. Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the
40s and 30s with even below freezing temps at Tatum. The worst of
the winds are behind us now that the large upper trough has
positioned itself overhead with its base and associated speed max
nudged all the way down into Mexico. Despite this, high winds look
to continue here or there across the Guadalupes through this
evening, especially when strong wave breaking occurs. With this,
have extended the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe zones through
01z.

As a shortwave rounding the base of the main trough lifts northward
through east-central Texas this morning, it brings the northern edge
of the jet back overhead and yet another breezy day is expected
today. These winds and diurnal heating will wash out the front and
gusts gusts of 25-30kts is expected through the afternoon.
Additionally, another round of high-based showers (mostly virga) is
expected this afternoon with the cold core and some elevated
moisture lingering. Rain amounts will generally be very light and
locally enhanced wind gusts are possible with any dissipating
showers. Temperatures this afternoon remain on the cool side due to
the lowered thickness with the trough overhead and added cloud cover.

One final shortwave passes through by Wednesday afternoon marking
the departure of the longwave trough that has been plaguing us since
Sunday. With this, Wednesday afternoon looks very similar to today
with more breezy conditions and perhaps a shower or two across the
northern/northeastern Permian Basin. Temperatures do tick up a few
degrees as the trough starts to slide eastward out of our area.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The late week and weekend look fairly quiet although temperatures
will really be on the rise. Quasi-zonal mid level flow and southerly
winds at the surface will lead to warming temperatures with no shot
at any precipitation. Highs look to make the 70s Thursday, 80s
Friday, and it`s only up from there. By the weekend, an upper trough
will make landfall along the CA coast helping our area transition to
southwesterly flow aloft. As this downslope flow deepens with time
we are likely to see our warmest temperatures of the year so far
this weekend. On Saturday, NBM probabilities are high (70-90%) for
high temperatures to reach 90 degrees across the NE Permian Basin,
along the Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande. By Sunday, these
probabilities become more widespread across the area. Nearly
everyone east of the higher terrain has a greater than 70% chance
of hitting the 90 degree mark. For Midland Intl, this would be the
first time this year. It is likely (>90%) that areas along the
Rio Grande see 100 degree temperatures this weekend. The upper
pattern along with a beefy thermal ridge would support these
probabilities so have trended up for temperatures accordingly.

Temperatures will begin to cool next week with the passage of the
upper trough and a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The weak front has made it to the Pecos River valley, leaving
light east-northeasterly winds in its wake. After sunrise, breezy
west winds pick up region-wide and wash out this boundary. Gusts
of 25-30kts continue through this evening. A few scattered showers
are possible this afternoon but low confidence in coverage and
timing precludes any mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  39  71  37 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  41  70  37 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   72  46  77  44 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            67  44  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  36  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  36  67  33 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    58  33  63  32 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  41  69  38 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   65  42  70  39 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     67  41  72  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16


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