554
FXUS64 KMAF 282323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

It`s quite the quiescent afternoon out there today, with
temperatures hovering in the 70s and lower 80s for many, around 5
to 10 degrees below normal for late April. A light westerly
breeze continues on the wake of yesterday and last night`s
departing trough, which has maintained a negative tilt as it
swings across the plains, shunting moisture (and severe weather)
toward East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Locally,
pleasant, dry conditions will continue, with lows tonight in the
50s for most, with 40s north and in the mountains, and lower 60s
along the Rio Grande. Another pleasant day is ahead for Monday,
albeit with warming temperatures thanks to the development of weak
lee surface trough to the north of the region that will maintain
westerly downslope flow. Highs Monday afternoon are progged to top
out a few degrees above normal, reaching the middle to upper 80s
for most, with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. As
winds shift to the south and southeast and return flow commences
Monday night with the return of the low- level jet, the increase
in moisture will yield an increase in low temperatures, which will
range from the 50s west to 60s east.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The main feature in the long term will be a large upper level
trough moving across Central CONUS which will shoot a cold front
down to the area late in the week. Before this, however, a
disturbance moving across Texas Tuesday evening may initiate a few
storms across the eastern Permian Basin, but moisture will be
fairly limited and not much in the way of rain is expected. As
this moves off, weak ridging sets up over West Texas and southerly
surface flow in response to lee troughing will usher in low level
moisture, helping to sharpen the dryline both Wednesday and
Thursday. As is typical this time of year, some storms may develop
off the dryline in the afternoon and early evenings, although
instability will be lacking both days for more organized storms.
Regardless, lightning and gusty winds will always remain a threat,
so if you have outdoor plans, prepare to take shelter indoors if
thunderstorms do develop. Temperatures through Thursday look to be
warm in the 80s to low 90s with a thermal ridge axis setting up
across far West Texas and warm southerly winds pushing
temperatures above normal for early May. This all changes Friday
as the foretold cold front pushes down on the heels of the upper
level trough, and some places may see highs fall to the 70s Friday
and through the weekend. Depending on where the front stalls up,
additional rounds of showers/storms will be possible through the
weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Westerly winds may
see some intermittent gusts to around 15-20kt early in the period
before becoming light and somewhat variable after sunset.
Sustained speeds thereafter will remain around 10kt or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  88  61  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 52  86  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  92  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            56  89  62  94 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           52  77  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  84  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  83  47  88 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     54  88  62  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   56  87  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     52  89  59  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84