816
ACUS11 KWNS 070036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070036
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Northwest and west-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 070036Z - 070230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this evening as
storms move into western portions of Missouri. QLCS tornadoes and
damaging winds are the expected primary hazards.

DISCUSSION...A linear segment east of Concordia, KS will continue
northeast this evening. This activity may reach northwest Missouri
between 8:30-9 PM CDT based on current projections. As upper-level
forcing continues to push eastward into the overnight, the
expectation is for additional storms to form along the composite
dryline/Pacific front later this evening. Those storms would likely
impact portions of western Missouri. Low-level hodographs on the
KEAX VAD already show sufficient shear for rotating storms. This
shear is expected to increase as the low-level jet strengthens and
shifts eastward -- KTWX to the west already is showing 50 kts
between 1-2 km. While the overall tornado risk will be somewhat
mitigated by a linear storm mode, QLCS tornadoes will still be
possible as will damaging wind gusts. A tornado watch will likely be
issued in the next 1-2 hours.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39929534 40329559 40549519 40519428 40079333 39419283
            38929307 38339393 38179431 38299478 39929534