Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 272332
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-South tonight and
allow temperatures to fall in to the low to mid 30s areawide.
Widespread frost can be expected with a freeze likely across
portions of west Tennessee. A warming trend will begin Thursday
and persist through early next week. Breezy conditions and above
normal temperatures are expected this weekend with unsettled and
stormy weather returning to the region early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A cool spring day is underway across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures range from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees. The
latest surface analysis places a 993mb low over northern Quebec
with a 1011mb low over southeast Georgia. A broad 1024mb high was
centered over Central Plains. The aforementioned high will build
into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight and become nearly
centered over the Mid-South overnight. This will lead to prime
radiational cooling conditions as winds go nearly calm under
mostly clear skies. The only fly in the ointment is lingering
cloud cover over southeast portions of the Mid-South, due to a
traversing shortwave. Nonetheless, mostly clear skies are
anticipated across the majority of the area by midnight with
clearing skies overnight over northeast Mississippi. An areawide
frost advisory was issued with a freeze warning for portions of
west Tennessee. A persistence forecast undercuts NBM guidance
temperatures as several locations in west Tennessee easily touched
the freezing mark earlier this morning. A more favorable setup is
anticipated tonight and temperatures could fall as low as the
upper 20s in the freeze warning by tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will warm quickly tomorrow as a high sun angle and
dry airmass team up. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s areawide.
A nice warming trend will begin Friday and persist through early
next week as an upper ridge builds across the region. The ridge
will amplify on Saturday, downstream of a deepening upper low off
the SOCAL coast. The upper low will shear apart on Sunday and
eject several pieces of energy across the western CONUS Monday
into Tuesday. A warm front is progged to lift through the Mid-
South late Sunday and usher in a slightly unstable airmass.
Deterministic models are in rather good agreement on a
positively-tilted shortwave dropping into the Central Plains
Monday and widespread 40 to 60 meter height falls overspreading
northern portions of the Mid-South Monday night. This setup has
the earmarks of at least the threat of strong to potentially
severe storms affecting the region Monday night into Tuesday.

Unsettled weather will persist on Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
A few strong to severe storms could also accompany this frontal
passage, especially during the afternoon hours. Below normal
temperatures will build in behind the exiting front and persist
through midweek.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period as high pressure
remains over the region. Calm winds, mostly clear skies, and
forecast soundings are hinting at a chance for BR to develop
around 06Z and persist through 14Z at MKL, though visibilities
only drop to around 6SM. North/northeast light winds will shift
south/southwest beginning tomorrow afternoon with the movement of
southerly flow.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ001-022-
     053>055-088-091-092.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ002>004-
     019>021-048>052-089-090.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH


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