Text Products for FWS Issued by MHX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FNUS72 KMHX 190802
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 20 Mill Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0400 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Backdoor cold front stalled to the west of eastern NC will
gradually lift back northward today. Easterly winds this morning
will gradually veer southeasterly and then southerly by tonight
while remaining under 10 kt inland. A few gusts near 15 mph are
possible late morning and afternoon. Min RHs at the burn site will
range between 60-70%.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 14 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 22540 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 29.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.99 to 30.06 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  80  83  75  60  52  47  37  33  37  46  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  59  60  63  65  68  69  70  71  71  70  69
RH..............95  94  91  84  78  72  69  67  67  68  70  73
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.14  9   9   9   14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  12  10  10  10  12  12  12
LVORI...........5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............12  22  22  24  26  25  24  25  24  29  25  27
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.17  17  17  19  20  20  18  19  19  23  19  21
Sfc pres (in)...001 002 004 005 005 006 005 005 004 002 000 999

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers
                    overnight.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 13 mph shifting to the south 9
                    to 12 mph late in the evening.
Vent Rate...........Min 3909 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Min 4.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.95 to 30.01 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     68     65     67     80     70
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     65     65     65     65     64
RH..............78     90     94     95     96     98
20 ft wind......E 8    E 4    SE 3   S 4    S 4    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.14     5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   400    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 12   SE 12  S 9    S 9    S 9    SW 12
LVORI...........3      5      6      6      6      8
ADI.............18     8      4      6      6      8
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.14     5      4      4      4      5
Sfc pres (in)...29.99  30.00  30.01  30.00  29.97  29.95

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming west around 6 mph
                    early in the afternoon shifting to the north 7
                    to 9 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph shifting to the north 8
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 17020 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 22.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.93 to 29.97 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........66        62        61        64
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............64        68        73        73
RH..............96        87        79        68
20 FT wind......SW 6      SW 4G9    W 5G9     N 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       800       1700      1700
Transport wind..SW 12     W 9       NW 7      N 10
LVORI...........6         5         4         3
ADI.............8         10        15        22
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5         7         12        17
Sfc pres (in)...29.95     29.97     29.96     29.94

$$
Forecaster...Simms
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411366.0/MHX
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.l.nelson@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
