Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
533 FXUS62 KMLB 031443 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1043 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 The KMLB WSR-88D radar is showing isolated light showers over the Atlantic this morning, with some of them making it to the coast and pushing a little inland. These showers are moving westward around 5- 10 mph. Thus, have added isolated sprinkles (PoP 10-14 percent) along the coast this morning to account for these onshore moving light showers. Temperatures as of 10 AM are in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in control over the region, with mostly to partly sunny skies forecast for today. Very similar to yesterday, with the east coast sea breeze expected to form in the afternoon and push inland. Onshore winds will increase to around 10- 12 mph along the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Drier air will filter across the area today(forecast PW values ranging from 1.0-1.1" this afternoon) which will limit convection. CAMs continue to show a few showers possibly forming west of Orlando late this afternoon. So have left a slight chance of showers (PoP 15 percent) in the forecast along the far western interior of the CWA. Due to the significant dry air in the mid and upper levels, any showers that do form should be fairly shallow topped, which will prevent any lightning storm development. Temperatures will be warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the morning rain chances to include the isolated sprinkles along the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. light onshore winds this morning will increase to around 10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form this afternoon and push inland, increasing winds to around 12 KT behind the boundary, with gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will then decrease in the evening, becoming light once again overnight. Local guidance shows isolated showers forming later this afternoon across western interior, mainly LEE, as the sea breeze pushes through. However confidence and coverage not high enough to include VCSH in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure remains over the local area. Onshore flow will persist, with speeds generally around 10 KT this afternoon before decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon, increasing the winds to around 10-15 KT. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated showers will be possible today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Min RH values between 35-40% are forecast today, with 40-45% this weekend, across the interior. Higher values for coastal areas. Drier conditions are forecast next week, as min RH once again falls to around 35% for much of the area by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this weekend, with isolated to scattered showers. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. High temperatures will climb to well above normal through the period, with highs today in the mid-80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 over the interior increasing to as high as the mid to upper 90s next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 20 MCO 88 68 89 69 / 20 0 20 20 MLB 83 69 84 70 / 10 0 20 20 VRB 85 68 84 68 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 90 68 89 70 / 20 0 30 20 SFB 88 67 88 68 / 10 0 20 20 ORL 89 68 89 69 / 20 0 20 20 FPR 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson/Law