969
FXUS64 KMOB 070514
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1213 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop overnight across a good
portion of the area. VFR conditions will become prevalent on
Tuesday. Light southerly winds prevail tonight before increasing
to 8-13 kt with a few gusts around 20 kt during the day Tuesday.
/21

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Summer-like weather will continue through Tuesday as shortwave
upper level ridging builds across the area. At the sfc, high
pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a moist southerly
flow. Tuesday will likely be very similar to today with isolated
to low-end scattered showers and storms mainly northwest of I-65
during the afternoon and early evening. Outside of isolated to
scattered convection, it will remain warm with highs on Tuesday in
the upper 80s to around 90 inland to low to mid 80s along the
coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s inland to
low 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf will build further north
on Wednesday and the associated subsidence will keep conditions
dry and warm through the day. High temperatures are expected to be
the warmest of the year so far with values rising into the upper
80s and lower 90s inland with middle 80s along the immediate
coast. It will feel even warmer given the humid conditions in
place with heat index values climbing into the middle and upper
90s for most locations Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be
rather mild with temperatures falling only into the lower and
middle 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

We begin to transition into a more unsettled pattern Wednesday
night through the later part of the work week as the upper ridge
flattens out and flow aloft becomes more zonal. At the same time,
a longwave trough will sweep across the Midwest and over the
eastern US with a lead shortwave feature moving over the local
area Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Down at the
surface, a low pressure system will lift northeastward across the
Midwest and into the Great Lakes region with its associated cold
front expected to push through the area on Friday. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase mainly for inland
areas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weakening
cluster of storms approaches from the northwest. There is still
some uncertainty with how this early convection will impact storms
later in the day, but the general consensus is that a very warm
and unstable airmass will develop on Thursday with SBCAPE values
of 2000-3000 J/Kg given the persistent onshore flow ahead of the
front. Highs on Thursday are also expected to climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s. This warm and unstable airmass combined with
the shortwave aloft will bring another round of showers and storms
into the area Thursday evening and into early Friday morning as
the front pushes into the area. Increasing deep layer shear of
50-60 knots combined with the instability could lead to some
organized severe potential Thursday evening into early Friday
morning potentially in the form on an MCS with damaging winds and
large hail being the main concerns. The cold front will continue
to push through the local area on Friday with dry conditions
expected by early Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are
anticipated behind the boundary with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions likely
persist through much of the weekend, although if the front tries
to lift northward then areas along the coast could see a few
showers or storms on Sunday and Monday. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  87  73  88  68  83  59  81 /   0   0   0  30  50  30  10  10
Pensacola   74  85  75  86  71  82  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  40  40  10  10
Destin      75  84  75  85  72  82  64  79 /   0   0   0  20  30  50  10  10
Evergreen   69  90  70  90  66  81  54  80 /   0  10  10  50  60  50   0  10
Waynesboro  70  91  71  90  63  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  50  60  20   0  10
Camden      69  90  70  88  63  79  54  77 /  10  10  20  60  60  40   0  10
Crestview   68  89  70  89  66  84  55  82 /   0  10   0  30  40  50  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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