Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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420 FXUS63 KMPX 111826 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 126 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues tonight, but increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing a little less vibrant than last night. - Sunny and warm on Sunday with in the 80s. - Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery showed clear skies and light westerly winds across Minnesota, with northwest winds and a few cumulus clouds over Wisconsin. Further upstream, some thin cirrus was located across the Dakotas and southern Canada, and this is forecast to move overhead later tonight. With another display of aurora on tap for tonight, the high clouds could limit the vibrancy a bit as opposed to last night. On Sunday, southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will allow temperatures to warm into the 80s. The front is forecast to move through during the afternoon and evening. This front will pass through dry, but there is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms across southern/eastern MN and western WI. The lack of instability is the limiting factor in the very low risk for severe weather. The SPC Day2 outlook has general thunder forecast, with a sliver of Marginal touching far eastern Rusk/Chippewa/Eau Claire counties. On Monday this cold front will stall out to the south, keeping most of the region north of I-90 dry through at least Tuesday. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will approach from the west, and this will be the focus for a rather prolonged period of rain chances. Based on the ensemble guidance, most if not all locations will see rain from Wednesday through Thursday, with smaller chances continuing into next weekend. The severe weather risk appears low with this system. Mid level lapse rates will only be on the order of 6 to 7C/km, and most likely only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions throughout. Today will have westerly winds around 10 kts. These will become more southerly overnight, and southwest on Sunday morning. Another weak frontal boundary will move through late Sunday and bring a northerly wind shift and small chance for a shower or thunderstorm. KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with WNW winds around 10 kts. Winds will become more southerly overnight, and southwest on Sunday morning. Another weak frontal boundary will move through late Sunday and bring a northerly wind shift and small chance for a shower or thunderstorm near the end of TAF time (00Z Monday). /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts BCMG N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NNE 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...JRB