147
FNUS73 KMPX 031154
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Sunburg WPA Rx...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Sunburg Rx Burn, temperatures will warm
quickly from the upper 40s at ignition time to the mid 60s by
early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher
during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if
temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases
during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late
this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around
10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the
late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming
more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................76 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /74400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                                    SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  48  51  53  56  58  60  61  61  58  54  51
RH..............76  68  61  54  51  47  44  42  42  49  61  68
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  13  13  13  13  12  10  12  9   10  12  9
20 FT wind gust.16  20  20  20  20  17  16  17  14  16  17  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  17  20  18  17  16  16  17  17  15  15  14
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (93300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Blatz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413070.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov