Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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462 FXUS64 KOHX 081758 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1258 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I- 40. This far northern area has served as the flood threat with numerous advisories and warnings issued thus far. Flood reports have been received mainly across the Robertson and Sumner county areas. Energy along the boundary is working eastward with the bulk of the activity now across the Plateau. To the south, airmass is hanging on to a weak cap despite warming temps. Upstream however, 2 separate slugs of energy will be pushing southeastward. This translates to 2 rounds of severe. The 1st will occur from 3pm to 6pm, with the 2nd round in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe. All forms of severe weather will be possible. Instabilities will be greatest across our south so I would think the largest(non tornadic) hail would occur there. As for rainfall amounts, the flood watch shall continue. Latest Hrrr shows isolated storm totals of up to 6 inches across an area stretching from far north central middle TN eastward across the northern Plateau. Now models do hang onto the light to moderate shower activity through 12Z to 18Z before ending. Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps. Upper troughing will feature a Friday shortwave with a few showers. Saturday looks similar with an additional shortwave. The near term temps will continue to run rather warm tonight and Thursday with 80s for highs once again. Noticeably cooler by Friday morning with lows back down into the 50s. We may seven see some 40s by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 In the extended forecast, ridging will return for Monday. The next system of interest will be for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Instability looks weak for now so mostly just looking at showers and non severe tstms for now. Extended temps will start out on the cool side but will warm back to near 80 for highs by mid week. Overnight lows will work back into the lower 60s as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Airmass is somewhat capped for now. However, a couple slugs of energy will enable showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as round 1, and then this evening as round 2. The Currently high instability levels will only increase with time. Thus, the full plethora of severe possibilities exists. For the tafs will include temporary gusts to 40 kts with the stronger storms. Look for showers to persist, generally after 06Z-09Z when the storminess exits. IFR cigs and vsbys will of course accompany the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 86 58 72 / 90 30 10 10 Clarksville 66 83 54 70 / 80 10 10 10 Crossville 63 79 53 66 / 90 50 20 30 Columbia 66 85 56 72 / 100 30 10 10 Cookeville 65 80 54 67 / 90 50 20 20 Jamestown 63 79 53 66 / 90 50 20 30 Lawrenceburg 66 84 57 72 / 100 40 10 10 Murfreesboro 66 85 55 72 / 100 40 10 10 Waverly 66 83 54 71 / 90 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham- Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy- Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury- Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford- Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson- Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....21