National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOUN 200937
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
437 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Isentropic lift is increasing in north Texas and southern Oklahoma
with the mid-level virga rapidly becoming showers/thunderstorms
this morning with a couple of strong to severe storms that have
developed. RAP shows a small area of around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
near and west of Wichita Falls, so the atmosphere could support
isolated strong to low-end severe thunderstorms in the south,
although the overall setup does not look to support widespread
severe weather. And although the RAP does show some increase in
elevated instability later this morning in north Texas, the
instability farther north remains relatively low, so the potential
of strong/severe storms up toward Interstate 40 is definitely
lower than in north Texas and southern Oklahoma. With the

Overall expect the coverage of showers and storms in the south to
continue to increase. But the models have shifted both the axis of
heaviest precipitation and the northern extend of precipitation
farther south. The isentropic lift is focused primarily in the
south as the winds on some of the isentropic surfaces are more
westerly in central and northern Oklahoma as opposed to more
southerly/upglide in the south. So showers/storms will become
widespread today in the south with only slight chances forecast in
northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A warming trend is expected over the next couple of days before the
next cold front comes in Tuesday afternoon or evening cooling
things slightly again. If the front approaches northern Oklahoma
Tuesday morning, there will be at least some low shower chances
near the front. Lift above the frontal surfaces brings more
organized precipitation chances to the area Tuesday night. Then
the pattern turns more active with a mid-level trough approaching
from the west later in the week. Higher instability is expected
late this week as moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico, but
there are still some questions about severe thunderstorm
potential, mainly the timing of the approaching mid-level trough
(with the GFS and ECMWF differing on whether the trough will
approach on Thursday or Friday) and what the strength of the
capping inversion will be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. Winds will
generally be from the NE for much of the TAF period. Showers and
storms will continue to develop and move across the area during
the day today with rain chances decreasing tonight. Highest
chances will be in southern OK/western north TX with low chances
for any rain in northern OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  45  63  41 /  40  20   0   0
Hobart OK         57  43  62  39 /  60  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  46  62  41 /  80  50   0   0
Gage OK           58  38  62  40 /  30  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  41  64  39 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         58  46  65  42 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25