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000
FXUS65 KPSR 152039
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
139 PM MST Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS…
Dry conditions will persist through the beginning of next week.
Below normal temperatures today will rapidly warm to above normal
by the middle of the week. Lower desert temperatures will climb
to the mid-to-upper 90s by the end of this week. The 90 degree
afternoon temperatures, for the lower deserts, will continue
through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Higher
elevation communities will see temperatures climb into the mid-to-
upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION…
The Desert Southwest is still under the influence of a closed low
that is currently centered over eastern Utah/western Colorado.
This low has brought decreased heights aloft which in turn has
brought cooler temperatures to the region. Afternoon high
temperatures will be below normal today with temperatures topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s across the lower deserts and upper
60s to low 70s across the higher terrain. This low will quickly
move into the Great Plains overnight allowing for heights to
increase over the Desert Southwest as a ridge starts to build in.
This increase in heights aloft will allow for temperatures to be
about 10 degrees warmer than today and be near normal for this
time of year.

For the latter half of the week, a trough in northern CONUS will
inhibit a high amplitude ridge to build over the region, which
instead will result in zonal flow overhead. Despite zonal flow
overhead, the higher heights aloft will allow for afternoon high
temperatures to climb above normal and into the mid-to-upper 90s
for the lower deserts and into the 80s for the higher terrain.
Global ensemble models depict a weak shortwave trough moving
through the region Friday through Saturday allowing for a slight
cool down in temperatures, however, temperatures are still
expected to be above normal. Afternoon high temperatures are only
forecasted to drop into the low-to-mid 90s on Saturday across the
lower deserts. Global ensembles depict a weak ridge starting to
build in over the Desert Southwest by the end of the weekend and
into the beginning of next week. This ridge would allow for
temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and near 100 degrees. The
NBM currently gives Phoenix a 20-30% chance of reaching 100
degrees next Monday. Forecast confidence is excellent that dry
conditions will continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1144Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF
period. Winds for the most part are expected to remain out of the
west through this evening. Otherwise, another period of enhanced
gusts upwards of 20-25 kts is expected during the early to mid-
afternoon hours once again before subsiding by the early evening
hours. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear through the
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours.
Winds will favor a W to NW component through the period at the
terminals with periods of variability. Speeds will mostly remain
light, primarily under 10 kts. Mostly clear skies will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue into next week. Below normal
temperatures will quickly jump to above normal for the middle and
later half of the week. Min RHs today will be in the 15-25% range,
whereas for the remainder of the week they will be in the 5-15%
range, with single digits common across the lower deserts.
Overnight recovery will be poor to fair in a 20-50% range. Expect
typical afternoon gustiness (20-25 mph), otherwise light winds are
expected across the region.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Young/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...18/Berislavich