664
FXUS65 KPSR 041006
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
306 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weather
system passing by to the north will help to bring cooler
temperatures Sunday into early next week. The system will also
lead to widespread breezy to windy conditions today across
southeast California and areawide on Sunday. Dry weather will
persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to
rebound into the low 90s by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal for
one more day ahead of an approaching Pacific low now moving into
northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Expect highs today
very similar to yesterday with readings mostly topping out in the
lower 90s across the lower deserts to as high as 95 degrees. The
approaching weather system will also increase the gradient across
the western deserts by this afternoon leading to increasing winds
and wind gusts likely reaching advisory level (40 mph) over
portions of southeast California by late this afternoon.

As the Pacific low moves inland across northern California into
northern Nevada tonight, it will start to weaken while also
bringing in some high level cloudiness through the Desert
Southwest. A dry cold front is also forecast to move through
southern California by Sunday morning with the front attempting to
move through much of Arizona, but it will likely somewhat wash
out as the system continues to weaken as it moves through Utah and
northern Arizona. Cooler temperatures will be realized on Sunday,
especially over the western deserts where readings will only top
out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but the Phoenix area
will still easily reach into the mid 80s. Windy conditions will
also impact the region areawide on Sunday with gusts across the
Arizona lower deserts mostly between 30-35 mph to as high as 40-45
mph across southeast California and over portions of the higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix.

The weather pattern for a good portion of next week should see a
large trough set up from the Plains States through the Pacific
Northwest with the southern fringe of the trough setting up over
our region. This will allow for several days of seasonably dry
westerly zonal flow over the Desert Southwest with heights aloft
hovering near seasonal averages. As a result, temperatures will
recover fairly slow into next week, eventually warming back into
the normal range by around Tuesday or Wednesday. NBM forecast
temperatures show highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s from
Tuesday through Thursday before warming a bit more by next weekend
as ensemble guidance shows a ridge potentially building in from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0556Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

W to SW winds will continue for another few hours, then easterly
winds should develop by 09-10Z. Very similar conditions are
forecast for Saturday, as seen on Friday, with southerly
variability midday/early-afternoon, then late afternoon westerly gusts
to around 20 kts. FEW to SCT high clouds will pass over the area
at times.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob
10 kts, while westerly winds at IPL winds will shift back SE
around sunrise Saturday. Southerly winds at KBLH will increase up
to 15-20 kts in the afternoon with peak gusts up to 25-30 kts.
Winds will be stronger at KIPL in the late-afternoon and evening
with westerly winds up to 20-25 kts and peak gusts in excess of 30
kts. Skies will remain mostly clear through mid-afternoon before
SCT to BKN high clouds pass over the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system moving just to the north this weekend will bring
breezy to windy conditions focused more during the afternoon and
evening hours along with cooler conditions starting Sunday. Wind
gusts above 30 mph are likely today across much of the western
districts and then areawide on Sunday. The strong winds and dry
conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over much
of the area this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be
around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for
most areas. For next week, weak high pressure will remain over the
region allowing for temperatures returning to slightly above
normal, while seasonably dry conditions persist. Lighter winds are
expected by Monday, but some afternoon breeziness can be expected
during the first part of next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ560.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ563>567.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman