084
FXUS65 KREV 090930
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A warming and drying trend transpires through the rest of this week,
with above average temperatures expected by this weekend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances are possible early next week while above
average temperatures continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest RAP analysis shows a mostly northerly upper air flow over
the CWA this morning with an upper air low feature residing over the
NE/SD/WY border. According to current satellite imagery and surface
observations, the region is experiencing easterly to northeasterly
surface winds with dry conditions and mostly clear skies with the
exception of few to scattered mid-level clouds over the Tahoe
Basin. Forecast guidance depicts the upper air low moving west-
southwestward towards the Great Basin region through the day which
will allow a ridge to build just off over the Pacific Coast and
cause the CWA`s upper air flow to become northeasterly. With this
setup above, the region looks to see breezy east-northeasterly
winds at the surface with gusts up to around 25-30 mph during the
afternoon and evening. With minimal cloud cover allowing more
diurnal heating, daytime temperatures also look to be on the rise
with western NV seeing highs within a few degrees on either side
of the 70 degree mark. The recent overnight near to below
freezing temperature threat will still be present tonight into
tomorrow morning, but the area of concern looks to be only for the
Tahoe Basin down south to Mono Country. Please continue to
protect your sensitive vegetation in these areas.

Going into the weekend, forecast guidance keeps the upper air low
within the Great Basin region on Friday before moving it to over the
Four Corners region during the latter half of Saturday which will
allow the trailing Pacific upper air ridge to move over the CWA. On
Sunday, ensembles show a weak trough moving towards the CWA from the
west that makes it over the CWA during the late evening. Another
feature of interest is an upper air low moving towards the coast of
southern CA at this time. At the surface, the warming trend is
expected to continue through the weekend with western NV seeing
daytime highs in the middle 70s followed by Saturday`s highs nearing
the 80 degree mark and Sunday`s highs up to the lower to middle
80s range. For precipitation chances, there looks to be a slight
chance (10- 15%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms in
portions of Mineral, Mono, and Churchill Counties on Friday
afternoon though not much QPF is expected currently with this.
Chances for precipitation on Saturday and Sunday look to have
backed off a bit in some of the latest model runs, but there are
some models still hinting at it particularly on Sunday with the
trough passing aloft. Will continue to monitor this possibility
going forward.

For Monday and beyond, ensemble guidance has the aforementioned
Pacific upper air low moving eastward into southern CA by Monday
night while the weak trough departs eastward. A trailing upper air
ridge moves over the western CONUS on Tuesday causing a northwesterly
flow going into Wednesday. While deterministic models become
rather chaotic late Wednesday, ensembles show a westerly zonal
flow over the CWA by next Thursday. Above average temperatures
look to continue next week with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s
on each day for most of the region while higher elevations are
slightly cooler. Southern portions of the region may see more
slight chances (10-15%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon, but the middle of the work week looks to be dry
at this time. Early indications show next Thursday afternoon to be
a bit on the breezy side with westerly winds gusting up to around
30-35 mph, but not the greatest confidence at this time being
this far out. Will monitor this as well to see if this wind forecast
holds going forward. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through the
end of the week. Some low-level wind shear may be seen for a few
hours early this morning at KTRK and KTVL. Besides this, light
winds can be expected each morning before typical afternoon
breezes up to around 20-25 kts occur each afternoon and evening
into the weekend.

Temperatures will warm to above average into the weekend, with
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra
beginning Friday and possibly lasting into the weekend. However,
these chances at this time look to be around 10-15%. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning CAZ072.

&&

$$